The Smart Forecaster

Pursuing best practices in demand planning,

forecasting and inventory optimization

Service Level vs Fill Rate

Service Level vs Fill Rate

Service level and fill rate are two important metrics for measuring how effectively customer demand is satisfied. These terms are often confused and understanding the differences can help improve your inventory planning process. This video blog (Vlog) helps illustrate the difference with a simple example using Excel

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Excess Inventory Hurts Customer Service!

Excess Inventory Hurts Customer Service!

Many companies adopt a “customer first, better to have the inventory and not need it” approach to inventory planning. While well intentioned, this approach often ignores the role that diminishing returns and opportunity costs play in inventory management impacting the organizations ability to quickly respond to demand.

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Smart Software and Epicor Enhance Supply Chain Planning

Smart Software and Epicor Enhance Supply Chain Planning

Smart Software, a global provider of next generation 100% web-based demand planning, forecasting and inventory optimization solutions, announces today their enhanced partnership with Epicor Software Corporation. This collaboration for the first time brings the cloud-based Smart IP&O (Inventory Planning and Optimization) into the latest version of the Epicor enterprise resource planning (ERP) solution.

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MAX-MIN OR ROP – ROQ

MAX-MIN OR ROP – ROQ

This guest blog details the differences between Min-Max and Reorder Point- Order Quantity replenishment logic and why it is important. It is authored by Phillip Slater, Founder of SparePartsKNowHow.com the leading educational resource for spare parts management. Mr. Slater is a global leader and consultant on materials management and specifically, engineering spare parts inventory management and optimization.

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Getting “Halfway There” with Demand Planning

Getting “Halfway There” with Demand Planning

Demand planning takes time and effort. It’s worth the effort to the extent that it actually helps you make what you need when you need it. But the job can be done well or poorly. We see many manufacturers who stop at the first level when they could easily go to the second level. And with a little more effort, they could go all the way to the third level, utilizing probabilistic modeling to convert demand planning results into an inventory optimization process.

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Beware of Simple Rules of Thumb for Managing Inventory

Beware of Simple Rules of Thumb for Managing Inventory

Managing inventory requires executives to balance competing goals: high product availability versus low investment in inventory. Executives strike this balance by stating availability targets and budget constraints. Then supply chain professionals translate these “commander’s intentions” into detailed specifications about reorder points and order quantities.

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Reveal Your Real Inventory Planning and Forecasting Policy by Answering These 10 Questions

Reveal Your Real Inventory Planning and Forecasting Policy by Answering These 10 Questions

In this blog, we review 10 specific questions you can ask to uncover what’s really happening with the inventory planning and demand forecasting policy at your company. We detail the typical answers provided when a forecasting/inventory planning policy doesn’t really exist, explain how to interpret these answers, and offer some clear advice on what to do about it.

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Worst Practices in Forecasting

Worst Practices in Forecasting

Companies launch initiatives to upgrade or improve their sales & operations planning and demand planning processes all the time. Many of these initiatives fail to deliver the results they should. Has your forecasting function fallen short of expectations? Do you struggle with “best practices” that seem incapable of producing accurate results?

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The Trouble With Turns

The Trouble With Turns

In our travels around the industrial scene, we notice that many companies pay more attention to inventory Turns than they should. We would like to deflect some of this attention to more consequential performance metrics.

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The Scourge of Skewness

The Scourge of Skewness

Demand planners have to cope with multiple problems to get their job done. One is the Irritation of Intermittency. The “now you see it, now you don’t” character of intermittent demand, with its heavy mix of zero values, forces the use of advanced statistical methods, such as Smart Software’s patented Markov Bootstrap algorithm. But even within the dark realm of intermittent demand, there are degrees of difficulty: planners must further cope with the potentially costly Scourge of Skewness.

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Recent Posts

  • Managing Spare Parts Inventory: Best PracticesManaging Spare Parts Inventory: Best Practices
    In this blog, we’ll explore several effective strategies for managing spare parts inventory, emphasizing the importance of optimizing stock levels, maintaining service levels, and using smart tools to aid in decision-making. Managing spare parts inventory is a critical component for businesses that depend on equipment uptime and service reliability. Unlike regular inventory items, spare parts often have unpredictable demand patterns, making them more challenging to manage effectively. An efficient spare parts inventory management system helps prevent stockouts that can lead to operational downtime and costly delays while also avoiding overstocking that unnecessarily ties up capital and increases holding costs. […]
  • 5 Ways to Improve Supply Chain Decision Speed5 Ways to Improve Supply Chain Decision Speed
    The promise of a digital supply chain has transformed how businesses operate. At its core, it can make rapid, data-driven decisions while ensuring quality and efficiency throughout operations. However, it's not just about having access to more data. Organizations need the right tools and platforms to turn that data into actionable insights. This is where decision-making becomes critical, especially in a landscape where new digital supply chain solutions and AI-driven platforms can support you in streamlining many processes within the decision matrix. […]
  • Two employees checking inventory in temporary storage in a distribution warehouse.12 Causes of Overstocking and Practical Solutions
    Managing inventory effectively is critical for maintaining a healthy balance sheet and ensuring that resources are optimally allocated. Here is an in-depth exploration of the main causes of overstocking, their implications, and possible solutions. […]
  • FAQ Mastering Smart IP&O for Better Inventory ManagementFAQ: Mastering Smart IP&O for Better Inventory Management.
    Effective supply chain and inventory management are essential for achieving operational efficiency and customer satisfaction. This blog provides clear and concise answers to some basic and other common questions from our Smart IP&O customers, offering practical insights to overcome typical challenges and enhance your inventory management practices. Focusing on these key areas, we help you transform complex inventory issues into strategic, manageable actions that reduce costs and improve overall performance with Smart IP&O. […]
  • 7 Key Demand Planning Trends Shaping the Future7 Key Demand Planning Trends Shaping the Future
    Demand planning goes beyond simply forecasting product needs; it's about ensuring your business meets customer demands with precision, efficiency, and cost-effectiveness. Latest demand planning technology addresses key challenges like forecast accuracy, inventory management, and market responsiveness. In this blog, we will introduce critical demand planning trends, including data-driven insights, probabilistic forecasting, consensus planning, predictive analytics, scenario modeling, real-time visibility, and multilevel forecasting. These trends will help you stay ahead of the curve, optimize your supply chain, reduce costs, and enhance customer satisfaction, positioning your business for long-term success. […]

    Inventory Optimization for Manufacturers, Distributors, and MRO

    • Managing Spare Parts Inventory: Best PracticesManaging Spare Parts Inventory: Best Practices
      In this blog, we’ll explore several effective strategies for managing spare parts inventory, emphasizing the importance of optimizing stock levels, maintaining service levels, and using smart tools to aid in decision-making. Managing spare parts inventory is a critical component for businesses that depend on equipment uptime and service reliability. Unlike regular inventory items, spare parts often have unpredictable demand patterns, making them more challenging to manage effectively. An efficient spare parts inventory management system helps prevent stockouts that can lead to operational downtime and costly delays while also avoiding overstocking that unnecessarily ties up capital and increases holding costs. […]
    • Innovating the OEM Aftermarket with AI-Driven Inventory Optimization XLInnovating the OEM Aftermarket with AI-Driven Inventory Optimization
      The aftermarket sector provides OEMs with a decisive advantage by offering a steady revenue stream and fostering customer loyalty through the reliable and timely delivery of service parts. However, managing inventory and forecasting demand in the aftermarket is fraught with challenges, including unpredictable demand patterns, vast product ranges, and the necessity for quick turnarounds. Traditional methods often fall short due to the complexity and variability of demand in the aftermarket. The latest technologies can analyze large datasets to predict future demand more accurately and optimize inventory levels, leading to better service and lower costs. […]
    • Future-Proofing Utilities. Advanced Analytics for Supply Chain OptimizationFuture-Proofing Utilities: Advanced Analytics for Supply Chain Optimization
      Utilities in the electrical, natural gas, urban water, and telecommunications fields are all asset-intensive and reliant on physical infrastructure that must be properly maintained, updated, and upgraded over time. Maximizing asset uptime and the reliability of physical infrastructure demands effective inventory management, spare parts forecasting, and supplier management. A utility that executes these processes effectively will outperform its peers, provide better returns for its investors and higher service levels for its customers, while reducing its environmental impact. […]
    • Centering Act Spare Parts Timing Pricing and ReliabilityCentering Act: Spare Parts Timing, Pricing, and Reliability
      In this article, we'll walk you through the process of crafting a spare parts inventory plan that prioritizes availability metrics such as service levels and fill rates while ensuring cost efficiency. We'll focus on an approach to inventory planning called Service Level-Driven Inventory Optimization. Next, we'll discuss how to determine what parts you should include in your inventory and those that might not be necessary. Lastly, we'll explore ways to enhance your service-level-driven inventory plan consistently. […]