Excellence in Forecasting Blog

Optimize Inventory planning parameters,improve service levels and increase revenue

Four Useful Ways to Measure Forecast Error

Four Useful Ways to Measure Forecast Error

In this video, Dr. Thomas Willemain, co-Founder and SVP Research, talks about improving Forecast Accuracy by measuring Forecast Error. We begin by overviewing the various types of Error Metrics: Scale-dependent error, Percentage error, Relative error, and Scale-free error Metrics. While some error is inevitable, there are ways to reduce it, and forecast metrics are necessary aids for monitoring and improving forecast accuracy. Then we will explain the special problem of intermittent demand and divide-by-zero problems. Tom concludes by explaining how to assess forecasts of multiple items and how it often makes sense to use weighted averages, weighting items differently by volume or revenue.

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Improve Forecast Accuracy by Managing Error

Improve Forecast Accuracy by Managing Error

In this video, Dr. Thomas Willemain, co-Founder and SVP Research, talks about improving Forecast Accuracy by Managing Error. This video is the first in our series on effective methods to Improve Forecast Accuracy.  We begin by looking at how forecast error causes pain and the consequential cost related to it. Then we will explain the three most common mistakes to avoid that can help us increase revenue and prevent excess inventory.

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A Primer on Probabilistic Forecasting

A Primer on Probabilistic Forecasting

If you keep up with the news about supply chain analytics, you are more frequently encountering the phrase “probabilistic forecasting.” Probabilistic forecasts have the ability to simulate future values that aren’t anchored to the past. If this phrase is puzzling, read on.

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Recent Posts

  • Smart Software and Arizona Public Service to Present at WERC 2022
    Smart Software CEO and APS Inventory Manager to present WERC 2022 Studio Session on implementing Smart IP&O in 90 Days and achieve significant savings by optimizing reorder points and order quantities for over 250,000 spare parts. […]
  • Optimizing Inventory around Suppliers Minimum Order QuantitiesOptimizing Inventory around Suppliers´ Minimum Order Quantities
    Recently, we had an interesting conversation with an inventory manager and the VP Finance. We were discussing the benefits of being able to automatically optimize both reorder points and order quantities. The VP Finance was concerned that given their large supplier required minimum order quantities, they would not be able to benefit. He said his suppliers held all the power, forcing him to accept massive minimum order quantities and tying his hands. While he felt bad about this, he saw a silver lining: He didn’t have to do any planning. He would accept a large inventory investment, but his customer service levels would the exceptional. Perhaps the large inventory investment was assumed to be the cost of doing business. […]