Excellence in Forecasting Blog

Optimize Inventory planning parameters,improve service levels and increase revenue

Four Useful Ways to Measure Forecast Error

Four Useful Ways to Measure Forecast Error

In this video, Dr. Thomas Willemain, co-Founder and SVP Research, talks about improving Forecast Accuracy by measuring Forecast Error. We begin by overviewing the various types of Error Metrics: Scale-dependent error, Percentage error, Relative error, and Scale-free error Metrics. While some error is inevitable, there are ways to reduce it, and forecast metrics are necessary aids for monitoring and improving forecast accuracy. Then we will explain the special problem of intermittent demand and divide-by-zero problems. Tom concludes by explaining how to assess forecasts of multiple items and how it often makes sense to use weighted averages, weighting items differently by volume or revenue.

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Improve Forecast Accuracy by Managing Error

Improve Forecast Accuracy by Managing Error

In this video, Dr. Thomas Willemain, co-Founder and SVP Research, talks about improving Forecast Accuracy by Managing Error. This video is the first in our series on effective methods to Improve Forecast Accuracy.  We begin by looking at how forecast error causes pain and the consequential cost related to it. Then we will explain the three most common mistakes to avoid that can help us increase revenue and prevent excess inventory.

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A Primer on Probabilistic Forecasting

A Primer on Probabilistic Forecasting

If you keep up with the news about supply chain analytics, you are more frequently encountering the phrase “probabilistic forecasting.” Probabilistic forecasts have the ability to simulate future values that aren’t anchored to the past. If this phrase is puzzling, read on.

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Recent Posts

  • Probabilistic Deterministic Order Planning SoftwareProbabilistic vs. Deterministic Order Planning
    Consider the problem of replenishing inventory. To be specific, suppose the inventory item in question is a spare part. Both you and your supplier will want some sense of how much you will be ordering and when. And your ERP system may be insisting that you let it in on the secret too. […]
  • Epicor Insights 2021Smart Software to Present at Epicor Insights 2021
    Smart Software President and CEO to present Insights 2021 Breakout Session on Creating Competitive Advantage with Smart Inventory Planning and Optimization. Empower planning teams to reduce inventory, improve service levels, and increase operational efficiency. […]