The Smart Forecaster

Pursuing best practices in demand planning, forecasting and inventory optimization

Protect your Demand Planning Process from Regime Change

Protect your Demand Planning Process from Regime Change

No, not that kind of regime change: Nothing here about cruise missiles and stealth bombers. And no, we’re not talking about the other kind of regime change that hits closer to home: Shuffling the C-Suite at your company. In this blog, we discuss the relevance of regime change on time series data used for demand planning and forecasting.

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Don’t Become a Victim of Your Forecast Models

Don’t Become a Victim of Your Forecast Models

Generally, the supply chain field has lagged behind finance in terms of the use of statistical models. My university colleagues and I are chipping away at that, but we have a long way to go. Some supply chains are quite technically sophisticated, but many, perhaps more, are essentially managed as much by gut instinct as by the numbers. Is this avoidance of analytics safer than relying on models?

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Reveal Your Real Inventory Planning and Forecasting Policy by Answering These 9 Questions

Reveal Your Real Inventory Planning and Forecasting Policy by Answering These 9 Questions

In this blog, we review 9 specific questions you can ask to uncover what’s really happening with the inventory planning and demand forecasting policy at your company. We detail the typical answers provided when a forecasting/inventory planning policy doesn’t really exist, explain how to interpret these answers, and offer some clear advice on what to do about it.

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Undershoot is Sabotaging your Service Level!

Undershoot is Sabotaging your Service Level!

Undershoot means that the lead time begins not at the reorder point but below it. Undershoot happens every time the demand that breached the reorder point took the stock down below (not down to) the reorder point. Undershoot picks your pocket before you even begin to roll the dice. It deludes the inventory professional into thinking his or her reorder points are sufficient to achieve their targets, whereas actual performance will not make the grade.

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