Forecasting and managing uncertain demand
An accurate forecast is a critical supply chain driver, but many organizations have a limited view of what comes next. Forecasts developed by sales teams or customers are often inaccurate and biased toward sales goals or budgets. Forecasts are often provided only at aggregate levels leaving unspecified which items will be at which locations. Planning teams are left to interpret sales figures and convert them into actionable forecasts of the item mix. Incorporating sales feedback, determining which decades old forecast model to use, managing the consensus forecast process, and tracking forecast accuracy are manual processes. They are often managed in complex spreadsheets that are difficult to use, share and scale, and don’t account important features of demand such as seasonality and trend.
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Accurate Demand Forecasts
Capture trend and seasonality
Predict range of future demand
Cleanse historical data
Collaborate with key stakeholders
Review at any level of hierarchy
Apply overrides and achieve consensus
Consistent Repeatable Process
Embed and reuse forecast rules
Monitor accuracy and fine-tune
Who is Smart Demand Planner for?
- Demand Planners.
- Forecast Analysts.
- Material & Inventory Planners.
- Operational Research Professionals.
- Sales Analysts.
- Statistcally Minded Executives.
What questions can Smart Demand Planner answer?
- What is my short and long term demand most likely to be?
- Which areas of the business and products are trending?
- What is the forecast at different levels of my hierarchy (customer, item, family)?
- What is the likely range of future demand?
- Which forecasts need to be reviewed (exception reporting)?
- What is our forecast error (accuracy) for each item, group, overall?
- Are forecast overrides adding value to the process?
What can Smart Demand Planner do?
Accurately forecast demand for thousands of items in any unit of measure, powered by the SmartForecasts® engine.
- Capture trends, seasonal, and cyclical patterns at any level.
- Outlier detection and correction to enhance the quality of historical data.
- Identifies “causal” factors such as price and economic data and models their impact on demand.
- Patented Intermittent Demand Planning via APICS award winning “Bootstrapping” technology.
- Create forecasts at any level of the hierarchy – customer, item, product groups, regions.
- Share forecasts with internal and external stakeholders such as sales and suppliers.
- Apply, document, and track forecast overrides.
- Quantify the impact that promotions will have on future demand.
- Apply user defined forecasting methods and rules.