The Smart Forecaster

Pursuing best practices in demand planning,

forecasting and inventory optimization

Direct to the Brain of the Boss – Inventory Analytics and Reporting

Direct to the Brain of the Boss – Inventory Analytics and Reporting

In this blog, the spotlight is cast on the software that creates reports for management, the silent hero that translates the beauty of furious calculations into actionable reports. Watch as the calculations, intricately guided by planners utilizing our software, seamlessly converge into Smart Operational Analytics (SOA) reports, dividing five key areas: inventory analysis, inventory performance, inventory trending, supplier performance, and demand anomalies.

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You Need to Team up with the Algorithms

You Need to Team up with the Algorithms

This article is about the real power that comes from the collaboration between you and our software that happens at your fingertips. We often write about the software itself and what goes on “under the hood”. This time, the subject is how you should best team up with the software.

read more
Rethinking forecast accuracy: A shift from accuracy to error metrics

Rethinking forecast accuracy: A shift from accuracy to error metrics

Measuring the accuracy of forecasts is an undeniably important part of the demand planning process. This forecasting scorecard could be built based on one of two contrasting viewpoints for computing metrics. The error viewpoint asks, “how far was the forecast from the actual?” The accuracy viewpoint asks, “how close was the forecast to the actual?” Both are valid, but error metrics provide more information.

read more
Every Forecasting Model is Good for What it is Designed for

Every Forecasting Model is Good for What it is Designed for

With so much hype around new Machine Learning (ML) and probabilistic forecasting methods, the traditional “extrapolative” or “time series” statistical forecasting methods seem to be getting the cold shoulder. However, it is worth remembering that these traditional techniques (such as single and double exponential smoothing, linear and simple moving averaging, and Winters models for seasonal items) often work quite well for higher volume data. Every method is good for what it was designed to do. Just apply each appropriately, as in don’t bring a knife to a gunfight and don’t use a jackhammer when a simple hand hammer will do.

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Top Differences Between Inventory Planning for Finished Goods and for MRO and Spare Parts

Top Differences Between Inventory Planning for Finished Goods and for MRO and Spare Parts

In today’s competitive business landscape, companies are constantly seeking ways to improve their operational efficiency and drive increased revenue. Optimizing service parts management is an often-overlooked aspect that can have a significant financial impact. Companies can improve overall efficiency and generate significant financial returns by effectively managing spare parts inventory. This article will explore the economic implications of optimized service parts management and how investing in Inventory Optimization and Demand Planning Software can provide a competitive advantage.

read more
How Are We Doing? KPI’s and KPP’s

How Are We Doing? KPI’s and KPP’s

Dealing with the day-to-day of inventory management can keep you busy. But you know you have to get your head up now and then to see where you’re heading. For that, your inventory software should show you metrics – and not just one, but a full set of metrics or KPI’s – Key Performance Indicators.

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Centering Act: Spare Parts Timing, Pricing, and Reliability

Centering Act: Spare Parts Timing, Pricing, and Reliability

In this article, we’ll walk you through the process of crafting a spare parts inventory plan that prioritizes availability metrics such as service levels and fill rates while ensuring cost efficiency. We’ll focus on an approach to inventory planning called Service Level-Driven Inventory Optimization. Next, we’ll discuss how to determine what parts you should include in your inventory and those that might not be necessary. Lastly, we’ll explore ways to enhance your service-level-driven inventory plan consistently.

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How to Forecast Inventory Requirements

How to Forecast Inventory Requirements

Forecasting inventory requirements is a specialized variant of forecasting that focuses on the high end of the range of possible future demand. Traditional methods often rely on bell-shaped demand curves, but this isn’t always accurate. In this article, we delve into the complexities of this practice, especially when dealing with intermittent demand.

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Six Demand Planning Best Practices You Should Think Twice About

Six Demand Planning Best Practices You Should Think Twice About

Every field, including forecasting, accumulates folk wisdom that eventually starts masquerading as “best practices.” These best practices are often wise, at least in part, but they often lack context and may not be appropriate for certain customers, industries, or business situations. There is often a catch, a “Yes, but”. This note is about six usually true forecasting precepts that nevertheless do have their caveats.

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Explaining What “Service Level” Means in Your Inventory Optimization Software

Explaining What “Service Level” Means in Your Inventory Optimization Software

Navigating the intricacies of stocking recommendations can often lead to questions about their accuracy and significance. A recent inquiry from one of our customers prompted an insightful discussion on the nuances of service levels and reorder points. During a team meeting, we identified unusual gaps between our Smart-suggested reorder points (ROP) at a 99% service level and the customer’s current ROP. In this post, we unravel the concept of a “99% service level” and its implications for inventory optimization, shedding light on how timing and immediate stock availability play pivotal roles in meeting customer expectations and remaining competitive in diverse industries.

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Recent Posts

  • Direct to the Brain of the Boss- Inventory AnalysisDirect to the Brain of the Boss – Inventory Analytics and Reporting
    In this blog, the spotlight is cast on the software that creates reports for management, the silent hero that translates the beauty of furious calculations into actionable reports. Watch as the calculations, intricately guided by planners utilizing our software, seamlessly converge into Smart Operational Analytics (SOA) reports, dividing five key areas: inventory analysis, inventory performance, inventory trending, supplier performance, and demand anomalies. […]
  • You need to team up with the algorithms for Inventory ManagementYou Need to Team up with the Algorithms
    This article is about the real power that comes from the collaboration between you and our software that happens at your fingertips. We often write about the software itself and what goes on “under the hood”. This time, the subject is how you should best team up with the software. […]
  • Rethinking forecast accuracy, A shift from accuracy to error metricsRethinking forecast accuracy: A shift from accuracy to error metrics
    Measuring the accuracy of forecasts is an undeniably important part of the demand planning process. This forecasting scorecard could be built based on one of two contrasting viewpoints for computing metrics. The error viewpoint asks, “how far was the forecast from the actual?” The accuracy viewpoint asks, “how close was the forecast to the actual?” Both are valid, but error metrics provide more information. […]
  • Using Key Performance Predictions to Plan Stocking Policies
    I can't imagine being an inventory planner in spare parts, distribution, or manufacturing and having to create safety stock levels, reorder points, and order suggestions without using key performance predictions of service levels, fill rates, and inventory costs. […]
  • Every forecasting model is good for what it is designed forEvery Forecasting Model is Good for What it is Designed for
    With so much hype around new Machine Learning (ML) and probabilistic forecasting methods, the traditional “extrapolative” or “time series” statistical forecasting methods seem to be getting the cold shoulder. However, it is worth remembering that these traditional techniques (such as single and double exponential smoothing, linear and simple moving averaging, and Winters models for seasonal items) often work quite well for higher volume data. Every method is good for what it was designed to do. Just apply each appropriately, as in don’t bring a knife to a gunfight and don’t use a jackhammer when a simple hand hammer will do. […]

    Inventory Optimization for Manufacturers, Distributors, and MRO

    • Top Differences between Inventory Planning for Finished Goods and for MRO and Spare PartsTop Differences Between Inventory Planning for Finished Goods and for MRO and Spare Parts
      In today’s competitive business landscape, companies are constantly seeking ways to improve their operational efficiency and drive increased revenue. Optimizing service parts management is an often-overlooked aspect that can have a significant financial impact. Companies can improve overall efficiency and generate significant financial returns by effectively managing spare parts inventory. This article will explore the economic implications of optimized service parts management and how investing in Inventory Optimization and Demand Planning Software can provide a competitive advantage. […]
    • Centering Act Spare Parts Timing Pricing and ReliabilityCentering Act: Spare Parts Timing, Pricing, and Reliability
      In this article, we'll walk you through the process of crafting a spare parts inventory plan that prioritizes availability metrics such as service levels and fill rates while ensuring cost efficiency. We'll focus on an approach to inventory planning called Service Level-Driven Inventory Optimization. Next, we'll discuss how to determine what parts you should include in your inventory and those that might not be necessary. Lastly, we'll explore ways to enhance your service-level-driven inventory plan consistently. […]
    • 5 Steps to Improve the Financial Impact of Spare Parts Planning5 Steps to Improve the Financial Impact of Spare Parts Planning
      In today’s competitive business landscape, companies are constantly seeking ways to improve their operational efficiency and drive increased revenue. Optimizing service parts management is an often-overlooked aspect that can have a significant financial impact. Companies can improve overall efficiency and generate significant financial returns by effectively managing spare parts inventory. This article will explore the economic implications of optimized service parts management and how investing in Inventory Optimization and Demand Planning Software can provide a competitive advantage. […]
    • Bottom Line strategies for Spare Parts Planning SoftwareBottom Line Strategies for Spare Parts Planning
      Managing spare parts presents numerous challenges, such as unexpected breakdowns, changing schedules, and inconsistent demand patterns. Traditional forecasting methods and manual approaches are ineffective in dealing with these complexities. To overcome these challenges, this blog outlines key strategies that prioritize service levels, utilize probabilistic methods to calculate reorder points, regularly adjust stocking policies, and implement a dedicated planning process to avoid excessive inventory. Explore these strategies to optimize spare parts inventory and improve operational efficiency. […]