The Smart Forecaster

Pursuing best practices in demand planning,

forecasting and inventory optimization

Planning for Consumable vs. Repairable Parts

Planning for Consumable vs. Repairable Parts

When deciding on the right stocking parameters for spare and replacement parts, it is important to distinguish between consumable and repairable parts. These differences are often overlooked by inventory planning software and can result in incorrect estimates of what to stock. Different approaches are required when planning for consumables vs. repairables.

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Extend Epicor Kinetic’s Forecasting & Min/Max Planning with Smart IP&O

Extend Epicor Kinetic’s Forecasting & Min/Max Planning with Smart IP&O

Epicor Kinetic can manage replenishment by suggesting what to order and when via reorder point-based inventory policies. The problem is that the ERP system requires that the user either manually specify these reorder points, or use a rudimentary “rule of thumb” approach based on daily averages. In this article, we will review the inventory ordering functionality in Epicor Kinetic, explain its limitations, and summarize how to reduce inventory, and minimize stockouts by providing the robust predictive functionality that is missing in Epicor.

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Scenario-based Forecasting vs. Equations

Scenario-based Forecasting vs. Equations

Traditionally, software has served as a delivery vehicle for equations. This is fine, as far as it goes. But we at Smart Software think you would do better by trading in your equations for scenarios. Learn why Scenario-based planning helps planners better manage risk and create better outcomes.

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Extend Microsoft 365 BC and NAV with Smart IP&O

Extend Microsoft 365 BC and NAV with Smart IP&O

Microsoft 365 BC and NAV can manage replenishment by suggesting what to order and when via reorder point-based inventory policies. The problem is that the ERP system requires that the user manually specify these reorder points and/or forecasts. In this article, we will review the inventory ordering functionality in Microsoft BC & NAV, explain its limitations, and summarize how to reduce inventory, and minimize stockouts by providing the robust predictive functionality that is missing in Dynamics 365.

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The Supply Chain Blame Game:  Top 3 Excuses for Inventory Shortage and Excess

The Supply Chain Blame Game: Top 3 Excuses for Inventory Shortage and Excess

The supply chain has become the blame game for almost any industrial or retail problem. Shortages on lead time variability, bad forecasts, and problems with bad data are facts of life, yet inventory-carrying organizations are often caught by surprise when any of these difficulties arise. So, again, who is to blame for the supply chain chaos? Keep reading this blog and we will try to show you how to prevent product shortages and overstocking.

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Managing Inventory amid Regime Change

Managing Inventory amid Regime Change

If you hear the phrase “regime change” on the news, you immediately think of some fraught geopolitical event. Statisticians use the phrase differently, in a way that has high relevance for demand planning and inventory optimization. This blog is about “regime change” in the statistical sense, meaning a major change in the character of the demand for an inventory item.

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Blanket Orders

Blanket Orders

Our customers are great teachers who have always helped us bridge the gap between textbook theory and practical application. A prime example happened over twenty years ago, when we were introduced to the phenomenon of intermittent demand, which is common among spare parts but rare among the finished goods managed by our original customers working in sales and marketing. This revelation soon led to our preeminent position as vendors of software for managing inventories of spare parts. Our latest bit of schooling concerns “blanket orders.”

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Optimizing Inventory around Suppliers´ Minimum Order Quantities

Optimizing Inventory around Suppliers´ Minimum Order Quantities

Recently, we had an interesting conversation with an inventory manager and the VP Finance. We were discussing the benefits of being able to automatically optimize both reorder points and order quantities. The VP Finance was concerned that given their large supplier required minimum order quantities, they would not be able to benefit. He said his suppliers held all the power, forcing him to accept massive minimum order quantities and tying his hands. While he felt bad about this, he saw a silver lining: He didn’t have to do any planning. He would accept a large inventory investment, but his customer service levels would the exceptional. Perhaps the large inventory investment was assumed to be the cost of doing business.

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Thoughts on Spare Busses and Spare Parts

Thoughts on Spare Busses and Spare Parts

The Covid19 pandemic has placed unusual stress on public transit agencies. This stress forces agencies to look again at their processes and equipment. This blog focuses on bus systems and their practices for spare parts management. However, there are lessons here for other types of public transit, including rail and light rail

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A Primer on Probabilistic Forecasting

A Primer on Probabilistic Forecasting

If you keep up with the news about supply chain analytics, you are more frequently encountering the phrase “probabilistic forecasting.” Probabilistic forecasts have the ability to simulate future values that aren’t anchored to the past. If this phrase is puzzling, read on.

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Stay the course

Stay the course

We’ve found that a few things help new customers exploit the power of advanced analytics for forecasting and inventory optimization. One is having a champion among management, an executive sponsor, who can vouch for the commercial importance of a successful implementation while ensuring the users are supported with continuing education.

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Recent Posts

  • Mature bearded mechanic in uniform examining the machine and repairing it in factoryPlanning for Consumable vs. Repairable Parts
    When deciding on the right stocking parameters for spare and replacement parts, it is important to distinguish between consumable and repairable parts. These differences are often overlooked by inventory planning software and can result in incorrect estimates of what to stock. Different approaches are required when planning for consumables vs. repairables. […]
  • Four Common Mistakes when Planning Replenishment TargetsFour Common Mistakes when Planning Replenishment Targets
    How often do you recalibrate your stocking policies? Why? Learn how to avoid key mistakes when planning replenishment targets by automating the process, recalibrating parts, using targeting forecasting methods, and reviewing exceptions. […]
  • Smart Software is pleased to introduce our series of webinars, offered exclusively for Epicor Users.Extend Epicor Kinetic’s Forecasting & Min/Max Planning with Smart IP&O
    Epicor Kinetic can manage replenishment by suggesting what to order and when via reorder point-based inventory policies. The problem is that the ERP system requires that the user either manually specify these reorder points, or use a rudimentary “rule of thumb” approach based on daily averages. In this article, we will review the inventory ordering functionality in Epicor Kinetic, explain its limitations, and summarize how to reduce inventory, and minimize stockouts by providing the robust predictive functionality that is missing in Epicor. […]
  • Scenario based Forecasting vs EquationsScenario-based Forecasting vs. Equations
    Traditionally, software has served as a delivery vehicle for equations. This is fine, as far as it goes. But we at Smart Software think you would do better by trading in your equations for scenarios. Learn why Scenario-based planning helps planners better manage risk and create better outcomes. […]
  • Extend Microsoft 365 BC and NAV with Smart IP&OExtend Microsoft 365 BC and NAV with Smart IP&O
    Microsoft 365 BC and NAV can manage replenishment by suggesting what to order and when via reorder point-based inventory policies. The problem is that the ERP system requires that the user manually specify these reorder points and/or forecasts. In this article, we will review the inventory ordering functionality in Microsoft BC & NAV, explain its limitations, and summarize how to reduce inventory, and minimize stockouts by providing the robust predictive functionality that is missing in Dynamics 365. […]

    Inventory Optimization for Manufacturers, Distributors, and MRO

    • Blanket Orders Smart Software Demand and Inventory Planning HDBlanket Orders
      Our customers are great teachers who have always helped us bridge the gap between textbook theory and practical application. A prime example happened over twenty years ago, when we were introduced to the phenomenon of intermittent demand, which is common among spare parts but rare among the finished goods managed by our original customers working in sales and marketing. This revelation soon led to our preeminent position as vendors of software for managing inventories of spare parts. Our latest bit of schooling concerns “blanket orders.” […]
    • Hand placing pieces to build an arrowProbabilistic Forecasting for Intermittent Demand
      The New Forecasting Technology derives from Probabilistic Forecasting, a statistical method that accurately forecasts both average product demand per period and customer service level inventory requirements. […]
    • Engineering to Order at Kratos Space – Making Parts Availability a Strategic Advantage
      The Kratos Space group within National Security technology innovator Kratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc., produces COTS s software and component products for space communications - Making Parts Availability a Strategic Advantage […]
    • wooden-figures-of-people-and-a-magnet-team-management-warehouse inventoryManaging the Inventory of Promoted Items
      In a previous post, I discussed one of the thornier problems demand planners sometimes face: working with product demand data characterized by what statisticians call skewness—a situation that can necessitate costly inventory investments. This sort of problematic data is found in several different scenarios. In at least one, the combination of intermittent demand and very effective sales promotions, the problem lends itself to an effective solution. […]