Intermittent Demand Forecasting Blog

Forecast intermittent product demand and determine the optimal inventory level

Managing Demand Variability

Managing Demand Variability

Anybody doing the job knows that managing inventory can be stressful. Common stressors include: Customers with “special” requests, IT departments with other priorities, balky ERP systems running on inaccurate data, raw material shortages, suppliers with long lead times in far-away countries where production often stops for various reasons and more. This note will address one particular and ever-present source of stress: demand variability.

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The Advantages of Probability Forecasting

The Advantages of Probability Forecasting

Most demand forecasts are partial or incomplete: They provide only one single number: the most likely value of future demand. This is called a point forecast. Usually, the point forecast estimates the average value of future demand. Much more useful is a forecast of full probability distribution of demand at any future time. This is more commonly referred to as probability forecasting and is much more useful.

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Recent Posts

  • Probabilistic Deterministic Order Planning SoftwareProbabilistic vs. Deterministic Order Planning
    Consider the problem of replenishing inventory. To be specific, suppose the inventory item in question is a spare part. Both you and your supplier will want some sense of how much you will be ordering and when. And your ERP system may be insisting that you let it in on the secret too. […]
  • Epicor Insights 2021Smart Software to Present at Epicor Insights 2021
    Smart Software President and CEO to present Insights 2021 Breakout Session on Creating Competitive Advantage with Smart Inventory Planning and Optimization. Empower planning teams to reduce inventory, improve service levels, and increase operational efficiency. […]