The Smart Forecaster

Pursuing best practices in demand planning, forecasting and inventory optimization

In a recent post at SupplyChainBrain, Robert Bowman takes a look at excellence in demand planning. Focusing on admirable qualities and techniques, it should be an interesting read for any demand planner seeking to improve his or her craft.

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How to Choose a Target Service Level

How to Choose a Target Service Level

When setting a target service level, make sure to take into account factors like current service levels, replenishment lead times, cost constraints, the pain inflicted by shortages on you and your customers, and your competitive position.

5 Demand Planning Tips for Calculating Forecast Uncertainty

5 Demand Planning Tips for Calculating Forecast Uncertainty

Those who produce forecasts owe it to those who consume forecasts, and to themselves, to be aware of the uncertainty in their forecasts. This note is about how to estimate forecast uncertainty and use the estimates in your demand planning process. We focus on forecasts made in support of demand planning as well as forecasts inherent in optimizing inventory policies involving reorder points, safety stocks, and min/max levels.

Excess Inventory Hurts Customer Service!

Excess Inventory Hurts Customer Service!

Many companies adopt a “customer first, better to have the inventory and not need it” approach to inventory planning. While well intentioned, this approach often ignores the role that diminishing returns and opportunity costs play in inventory management impacting the organizations ability to quickly respond to demand.

Recent Posts

  • The Right Forecast Accuracy Metric for Inventory Planning
    Traditional forecasting accuracy metrics aren't applicable when the goal is to optimize inventory. It's "service level accuracy" that matters because just setting a service target doesn’t mean you’ll actually achieve it. Poor accuracy here has extremely costly implications. The right way to measure accuracy for inventory planning is to focus on the accuracy of the service level projection. This blog explains why and details how to calculate the metric.
  • How to Choose a Target Service Level
    When setting a target service level, make sure to take into account factors like current service levels, replenishment lead times, cost constraints, the pain inflicted by shortages on you and your customers, and your competitive position.