Statistical Forecasting Blog

Optimize Inventory planning parameters,improve service levels and increase revenue

Forecasting is a fully developed business process that most organizations still struggle with today. Almost everyone’s top priority is probably to be able to consistently and accurately forecast Sales, Demand, Costs, Inventory, etc.  The inability to obtain a good forecast frequently has a significant business impact. Inaccurate forecasting leads to overstocking or running out, resulting in high costs and excess, impacting the bottom line and the success of the company.

A good forecast should give you enough confidence to make sound business decisions. For a more efficient forecast, consider these best practices:

  • What are the most common forecasting methods, and why do they produce inaccurate results.
  • How to achieve better ROI and optimal processes through scale, granularity, and agility
  • How to improve forecasting accuracy
  • How to use simple machine learning and artificial intelligence tools to get accurate and scalable forecasts
The Objectives in Forecasting

The Objectives in Forecasting

A forecast is a prediction about the value of a time series variable at some time in the future. For instance, one might want to estimate next month’s sales or demand for a product item. A time series is a sequence of numbers recorded at equally spaced time intervals; for example, unit sales recorded every month. The objectives you pursue when you forecast depend on the nature of your job and your business. Every forecast is uncertain; in fact, there is a range of possible values for any variable you forecast. Values near the middle of this range have a higher likelihood of actually occurring, while values at the extremes of the range are less likely to occur.

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The Forecasting Process for Decision-Makers

The Forecasting Process for Decision-Makers

In almost every business and industry, decision-makers need reliable forecasts of critical variables, such as sales, revenues, product demand, inventory levels, market share, expenses, and industry trends.Many kinds of people make these forecasts. Some are sophisticated technical analysts such as business economists and statisticians. Many others regard forecasting as an important part of their overall work: general managers, production planners, inventory control specialists, financial analysts, strategic planners, market researchers, and product and sales managers. Still, others seldom think of themselves as forecasters but often have to make forecasts on an intuitive, judgmental basis.

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Leveraging ERP Planning BOMs with Smart IP&O to Forecast the Unforecastable

Leveraging ERP Planning BOMs with Smart IP&O to Forecast the Unforecastable

In a highly configurable manufacturing environment, forecasting finished goods can become a complex and daunting task. The number of possible finished products will skyrocket when many components are interchangeable. A traditional MRP would force us to forecast every single finished product which can be unrealistic or even impossible. Several leading ERP solutions introduce the concept of the “Planning BOM”, which allows the use of forecasts at a higher level in the manufacturing process. In this article, we will discuss this functionality in ERP, and how you can take advantage of it with Smart Inventory Planning and Optimization (Smart IP&O) to get ahead of your demand in the face of this complexity.

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The Forecast Matters, but Maybe Not the Way You Think

The Forecast Matters, but Maybe Not the Way You Think

True or false: The forecast doesn’t matter to spare parts inventory management. At first glance, this statement seems obviously false. After all, forecasts are crucial for planning stock levels, right? It depends on what you mean by a “forecast”. If you mean an old-school single-number forecast (“demand for item CX218b will be 3 units next week and 6 units the week after”), then no. If you broaden the meaning of forecast to include a probability distribution taking account of uncertainties in both demand and supply, then yes.

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You Need to Team up with the Algorithms

You Need to Team up with the Algorithms

This article is about the real power that comes from the collaboration between you and our software that happens at your fingertips. We often write about the software itself and what goes on “under the hood”. This time, the subject is how you should best team up with the software.

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Recent Posts

  • Why MRO Businesses Need Add-on Service Parts Planning & Inventory SoftwareWhy MRO Businesses Need Add-on Service Parts Planning & Inventory Software
    MRO organizations exist in a wide range of industries, including public transit, electrical utilities, wastewater, hydro power, aviation, and mining. To get their work done, MRO professionals use Enterprise Asset Management (EAM) and Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) systems. These systems are designed to do a lot of jobs. Given their features, cost, and extensive implementation requirements, there is an assumption that EAM and ERP systems can do it all. In this post, we summarize the need for add-on software that addresses specialized analytics for inventory optimization, forecasting, and service parts planning. […]
  • Descriptive, Predictive, and Prescriptive AnalyticsThe Three Types of Supply Chain Analytics
    In this video blog, we explore the critical roles of Descriptive, Predictive, and Prescriptive Analytics in inventory management, highlighting their essential contributions to driving supply chain optimization through strategic foresight and insightful data analysis. […]
  • Warning Signs that You Have a Supply Chain Analytics GapWarning Signs that You Have a Supply Chain Analytics Gap
    “Business is war” may be an overdone metaphor but it’s not without validity. Like the “Bomber Gap” and the “Missile Gap,” worries about falling behind the competition, and the resulting threat of annihilation, always lurk in the minds of business executives, If they don’t, they should, because not all gaps are imaginary (the Bomber Gap and the Missile Gap were shown to not exist between the US and the USSR, but the 1980’s gap between Japanese and American productivity was all too real). The difference between paranoia and justified concern is converting fear into facts. This post is about organizing your attention toward possible gaps in your company’s supply chain analytics. […]
  • The Objectives in ForecastingThe Objectives in Forecasting
    A forecast is a prediction about the value of a time series variable at some time in the future. For instance, one might want to estimate next month’s sales or demand for a product item. A time series is a sequence of numbers recorded at equally spaced time intervals; for example, unit sales recorded every month. The objectives you pursue when you forecast depend on the nature of your job and your business. Every forecast is uncertain; in fact, there is a range of possible values for any variable you forecast. Values near the middle of this range have a higher likelihood of actually occurring, while values at the extremes of the range are less likely to occur. […]
  • Smart Software Partnership with Sage for Inventory Optimization and Demand ForecastingSmart Software Announces Strategic Partnership with Sage for Inventory Optimization and Demand Forecasting
    Smart Software announces today their strategic partnership with Sage. This collaboration brings Smart IP&O (Inventory Planning and Optimization) into the latest cloud and on-premises versions of Sage X3, Sage 300, and Sage 100. […]

    Inventory Optimization for Manufacturers, Distributors, and MRO

    • Why MRO Businesses Need Add-on Service Parts Planning & Inventory SoftwareWhy MRO Businesses Need Add-on Service Parts Planning & Inventory Software
      MRO organizations exist in a wide range of industries, including public transit, electrical utilities, wastewater, hydro power, aviation, and mining. To get their work done, MRO professionals use Enterprise Asset Management (EAM) and Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) systems. These systems are designed to do a lot of jobs. Given their features, cost, and extensive implementation requirements, there is an assumption that EAM and ERP systems can do it all. In this post, we summarize the need for add-on software that addresses specialized analytics for inventory optimization, forecasting, and service parts planning. […]
    • Spare-parts-demand-forecasting-a-different-perspective-for-planning-service-partsThe Forecast Matters, but Maybe Not the Way You Think
      True or false: The forecast doesn't matter to spare parts inventory management. At first glance, this statement seems obviously false. After all, forecasts are crucial for planning stock levels, right? It depends on what you mean by a “forecast”. If you mean an old-school single-number forecast (“demand for item CX218b will be 3 units next week and 6 units the week after”), then no. If you broaden the meaning of forecast to include a probability distribution taking account of uncertainties in both demand and supply, then yes. […]
    • Whyt MRO Businesses Should Care about Excess InventoryWhy MRO Businesses Should Care About Excess Inventory
      Do MRO companies genuinely prioritize reducing excess spare parts inventory? From an organizational standpoint, our experience suggests not necessarily. Boardroom discussions typically revolve around expanding fleets, acquiring new customers, meeting service level agreements (SLAs), modernizing infrastructure, and maximizing uptime. In industries where assets supported by spare parts cost hundreds of millions or generate significant revenue (e.g., mining or oil & gas), the value of the inventory just doesn’t raise any eyebrows, and organizations tend to overlook massive amounts of excessive inventory. […]
    • Top Differences between Inventory Planning for Finished Goods and for MRO and Spare PartsTop Differences Between Inventory Planning for Finished Goods and for MRO and Spare Parts
      In today’s competitive business landscape, companies are constantly seeking ways to improve their operational efficiency and drive increased revenue. Optimizing service parts management is an often-overlooked aspect that can have a significant financial impact. Companies can improve overall efficiency and generate significant financial returns by effectively managing spare parts inventory. This article will explore the economic implications of optimized service parts management and how investing in Inventory Optimization and Demand Planning Software can provide a competitive advantage. […]

    Problem

    Generating accurate statistical forecasts isn’t an easy task. Planners need to keep historical data continually up to date, build and manage a database of forecasting models, know which forecast methods to use, keep track of forecast overrides, and report on forecast accuracy. These steps are typically managed in a cumbersome spreadsheet that is often error-prone, slow, and difficult to share with the rest of the business. Forecasts tend to rely on one-sized fits all methods that require seasonality and trend to be added manually resulting in inaccurate predictions of what comes next

    Solution

    SmartForecasts™ Cloud is a statistical forecasting solution available on Smart’s Inventory Planning and Optimization Platform, Smart IP&O. It provides a statistically sound, objective foundation for your sales and operations planning process (S&OP). SmartForecasts automatically selects the most accurate forecasting method, allows users to fine-tune statistical and user-defined models, enables forecast and historical overrides, and automatically measures forecast error and bias. Forecast overrides are tracked and historical data is automatically updated eliminating the manual effort accompanying spreadsheet-based solutions. Coupled with Smart’s ERP connectors, results can be pushed to your ERP system of choice automatically. The result is more efficient sales planning, budgeting, production scheduling, ordering, and inventory planning process.

      Get the Product Sheet

      SmartForecasts ® Cloud

      Logo for Statistical modeling and optimization

      Accurate Demand Forecasts

      Gears logo ERP Integrations

      Best Forecasting Methods

      A11 Excel Problem Planning

      Imports Historical Data

      What can you do with SmartForecasts?
      • Run a forecasting tournament that selects the right forecasting method for each item.
      • Hand-craft forecasts using several time-series forecasting methods and non-statistical methods.
      • Automatically predict trends, seasonality, and cyclical patterns.
      • Imports demand data from files
      • Leverage ERP connectors to automatically import demand data and return forecast results
      Who is SmartForecasts for?

      • Demand Planners.
      • Forecast Analysts.
      • Material & Inventory Planners.
      • Operational Research Professionals.
      • Sales Analysts.
      • Statistcally Minded Executives.

      A Reliable and Secure Platform