Forecasting Techniques for a more profitable business

The Smart Forecaster

 Pursuing best practices in demand planning,

forecasting and inventory optimization

Improve Forecast Accuracy, Eliminate Excess Inventory, & Maximize Service Levels

 

In this Video Dr. Thomas Willemain, co–Founder and SVP Research, defines and compares the most useful Forecasting Techniques: Exponential Smoothing, Single Exponential Smoothing, Holt’s Method and Winter’s Method.  These videos explain the basic thinking under each technique as well as the math behind them, how they are used in practice and the tradeoff of each method.

Forecasting Techniques for a more profitable business
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RECENT POSTS

Goldilocks Inventory Levels

Goldilocks Inventory Levels

You may remember the story of Goldilocks from your long-ago youth. Sometimes the porridge was too hot, sometimes it was too cold, but just once it was just right. Now that we are adults, we can translate that fairy tale into a professional principle for inventory planning: There can be too little or too much inventory, and there is some Goldilocks level that is “just right.” This blog is about finding that sweet spot.

Call an Audible to Proactively Counter Supply Chain Noise

Call an Audible to Proactively Counter Supply Chain Noise

You know the situation: You work out the best way to manage each inventory item by computing the proper reorder points and replenishment targets, then average demand increases or decreases, or demand volatility changes, or suppliers’ lead times change, or your own costs change.

An Example of Simulation-Based Multiechelon Inventory Optimization

An Example of Simulation-Based Multiechelon Inventory Optimization

Managing the inventory across multiple facilities arrayed in multiple echelons can be a huge challenge for any company. The complexity arises from the interactions among the echelons, with demands at the lower levels bubbling up and any shortages at the higher levels cascading down.

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    TOP 3 COMMON INVENTORY POLICIES

    The Smart Forecaster

     Pursuing best practices in demand planning,

    forecasting and inventory optimization

    Inventory control policies and strategies for a more profitable business

    In this Video Dr. Thomas Willemain, co–Founder and SVP Research, defines and compares the three most used inventory control policies. These policies are divided into two groups, periodic review and continuous review. There is also a fourth policy called MRP logic or forecast based inventory planning which is the subject of a separate video blog that you can see here. These videos explain each policy, how they are used in practice and the pros and cons of each approach.

    Leave a Comment

    RECENT POSTS

    Goldilocks Inventory Levels

    Goldilocks Inventory Levels

    You may remember the story of Goldilocks from your long-ago youth. Sometimes the porridge was too hot, sometimes it was too cold, but just once it was just right. Now that we are adults, we can translate that fairy tale into a professional principle for inventory planning: There can be too little or too much inventory, and there is some Goldilocks level that is “just right.” This blog is about finding that sweet spot.

    Call an Audible to Proactively Counter Supply Chain Noise

    Call an Audible to Proactively Counter Supply Chain Noise

    You know the situation: You work out the best way to manage each inventory item by computing the proper reorder points and replenishment targets, then average demand increases or decreases, or demand volatility changes, or suppliers’ lead times change, or your own costs change.

    An Example of Simulation-Based Multiechelon Inventory Optimization

    An Example of Simulation-Based Multiechelon Inventory Optimization

    Managing the inventory across multiple facilities arrayed in multiple echelons can be a huge challenge for any company. The complexity arises from the interactions among the echelons, with demands at the lower levels bubbling up and any shortages at the higher levels cascading down.

    Recent Posts

    • Smart Software CEO to present at Epicor Insights 2022Smart Software to Present at Epicor Insights 2022
      Smart Software CEO will present at this year's Epicor Insights event in Nashville. If you plan to attend this year, please join us at booth #9 and #705, and learn more about Epicor Smart Inventory Planning and Optimization. […]
    • Smart Software and Arizona Public Service to Present at WERC 2022
      Smart Software CEO and APS Inventory Manager to present WERC 2022 Studio Session on implementing Smart IP&O in 90 Days and achieve significant savings by optimizing reorder points and order quantities for over 250,000 spare parts. […]

      Share, develop, and manage consensus demand plans

      The Smart Forecaster

       Pursuing best practices in demand planning,

      forecasting and inventory optimization

      Share, develop, and manage consensus demand plans to ensure inventory policy matches business strategy.

      Smart Inventory Optimization (SIO) creates planning scenarios. SIO starts with a “Live” scenario that shows where you are now. Various team members can create their own scenarios, perhaps dividing the work by product line or sales territory. One decision maker can then merge these scenarios into a consensus plan that becomes the “Goal” scenario, which drives the ERP system’s replenishment planning.

      Leave a Comment

      Related Posts

      Goldilocks Inventory Levels

      Goldilocks Inventory Levels

      You may remember the story of Goldilocks from your long-ago youth. Sometimes the porridge was too hot, sometimes it was too cold, but just once it was just right. Now that we are adults, we can translate that fairy tale into a professional principle for inventory planning: There can be too little or too much inventory, and there is some Goldilocks level that is “just right.” This blog is about finding that sweet spot.

      Call an Audible to Proactively Counter Supply Chain Noise

      Call an Audible to Proactively Counter Supply Chain Noise

      You know the situation: You work out the best way to manage each inventory item by computing the proper reorder points and replenishment targets, then average demand increases or decreases, or demand volatility changes, or suppliers’ lead times change, or your own costs change.

      An Example of Simulation-Based Multiechelon Inventory Optimization

      An Example of Simulation-Based Multiechelon Inventory Optimization

      Managing the inventory across multiple facilities arrayed in multiple echelons can be a huge challenge for any company. The complexity arises from the interactions among the echelons, with demands at the lower levels bubbling up and any shortages at the higher levels cascading down.

      Recent Posts

      • Smart Software CEO to present at Epicor Insights 2022Smart Software to Present at Epicor Insights 2022
        Smart Software CEO will present at this year's Epicor Insights event in Nashville. If you plan to attend this year, please join us at booth #9 and #705, and learn more about Epicor Smart Inventory Planning and Optimization. […]
      • Smart Software and Arizona Public Service to Present at WERC 2022
        Smart Software CEO and APS Inventory Manager to present WERC 2022 Studio Session on implementing Smart IP&O in 90 Days and achieve significant savings by optimizing reorder points and order quantities for over 250,000 spare parts. […]

        FORECAST DRIVEN INVENTORY MANAGEMENT

        The Smart Forecaster

         Pursuing best practices in demand planning,

        forecasting and inventory optimization

        Improve Forecast Accuracy, Eliminate Excess Inventory, & Maximize Service Levels

        In this Video Dr. Thomas Willemain, co–Founder and SVP Research, talks about forecast-based inventory management policy, also known as MRP logic. This is the fourth in our series on major approaches to managing inventory.  We begin by looking at some very simple and then more robust models of inventory dynamics that help us determine how much to order or manufacture and when. We then consider how to calculate lead time and account for lead time variability. Tom concludes by describing the importance of safety stock, it’s role in properly buffering against demand and supply uncertainty, and how best to calculate it. 

         

        Leave a Comment

        RECENT POSTS

        Goldilocks Inventory Levels

        Goldilocks Inventory Levels

        You may remember the story of Goldilocks from your long-ago youth. Sometimes the porridge was too hot, sometimes it was too cold, but just once it was just right. Now that we are adults, we can translate that fairy tale into a professional principle for inventory planning: There can be too little or too much inventory, and there is some Goldilocks level that is “just right.” This blog is about finding that sweet spot.

        Call an Audible to Proactively Counter Supply Chain Noise

        Call an Audible to Proactively Counter Supply Chain Noise

        You know the situation: You work out the best way to manage each inventory item by computing the proper reorder points and replenishment targets, then average demand increases or decreases, or demand volatility changes, or suppliers’ lead times change, or your own costs change.

        An Example of Simulation-Based Multiechelon Inventory Optimization

        An Example of Simulation-Based Multiechelon Inventory Optimization

        Managing the inventory across multiple facilities arrayed in multiple echelons can be a huge challenge for any company. The complexity arises from the interactions among the echelons, with demands at the lower levels bubbling up and any shortages at the higher levels cascading down.

        Recent Posts

        • Smart Software CEO to present at Epicor Insights 2022Smart Software to Present at Epicor Insights 2022
          Smart Software CEO will present at this year's Epicor Insights event in Nashville. If you plan to attend this year, please join us at booth #9 and #705, and learn more about Epicor Smart Inventory Planning and Optimization. […]
        • Smart Software and Arizona Public Service to Present at WERC 2022
          Smart Software CEO and APS Inventory Manager to present WERC 2022 Studio Session on implementing Smart IP&O in 90 Days and achieve significant savings by optimizing reorder points and order quantities for over 250,000 spare parts. […]

          How do you know Min/Max policy is working well for you?

          The Smart Forecaster

           Pursuing best practices in demand planning,

          forecasting and inventory optimization

          What is a Min/Max policy? How do you know is working well for you? Smart IP&O gets Min/Max right!

          The Min/Max inventory policy is one of four available Replenishment methods in SIO. When the inventory level drops to or below the Min, a replenishment order is generated. The reorder quantity is the number of units needed to raise the stock up to the Max. How do you know your Min/Max settings are working well and triggering replenishment orders at the right time and for the right quantities? If you are like most companies, setting Min/Max levels is based on rules of thumb or simple averaging techniques that don’t expose the trade off curve between service level and inventory cost. This makes it impossible to predict which items are likely to have overstocks and shortages in the future. In this Video Blog we elaborate on this and describe how Smart Inventory Optimization can help.

           

           

          Leave a Comment

          Related Posts

          Goldilocks Inventory Levels

          Goldilocks Inventory Levels

          You may remember the story of Goldilocks from your long-ago youth. Sometimes the porridge was too hot, sometimes it was too cold, but just once it was just right. Now that we are adults, we can translate that fairy tale into a professional principle for inventory planning: There can be too little or too much inventory, and there is some Goldilocks level that is “just right.” This blog is about finding that sweet spot.

          Call an Audible to Proactively Counter Supply Chain Noise

          Call an Audible to Proactively Counter Supply Chain Noise

          You know the situation: You work out the best way to manage each inventory item by computing the proper reorder points and replenishment targets, then average demand increases or decreases, or demand volatility changes, or suppliers’ lead times change, or your own costs change.

          An Example of Simulation-Based Multiechelon Inventory Optimization

          An Example of Simulation-Based Multiechelon Inventory Optimization

          Managing the inventory across multiple facilities arrayed in multiple echelons can be a huge challenge for any company. The complexity arises from the interactions among the echelons, with demands at the lower levels bubbling up and any shortages at the higher levels cascading down.

          Recent Posts

          • Smart Software CEO to present at Epicor Insights 2022Smart Software to Present at Epicor Insights 2022
            Smart Software CEO will present at this year's Epicor Insights event in Nashville. If you plan to attend this year, please join us at booth #9 and #705, and learn more about Epicor Smart Inventory Planning and Optimization. […]
          • Smart Software and Arizona Public Service to Present at WERC 2022
            Smart Software CEO and APS Inventory Manager to present WERC 2022 Studio Session on implementing Smart IP&O in 90 Days and achieve significant savings by optimizing reorder points and order quantities for over 250,000 spare parts. […]