The Smart Forecaster
Pursuing best practices in demand planning,
forecasting and inventory optimization
Improve Forecast Accuracy, Eliminate Excess Inventory, & Maximize Service Levels
In this Video Dr. Thomas Willemain, co–Founder and SVP Research, defines and compares the most useful Forecasting Techniques: Exponential Smoothing, Single Exponential Smoothing, Holt’s Method and Winter’s Method. These videos explain the basic thinking under each technique as well as the math behind them, how they are used in practice and the tradeoff of each method.
You know the situation: You work out the best way to manage each inventory item by computing the proper reorder points and replenishment targets, then average demand increases or decreases, or demand volatility changes, or suppliers’ lead times change, or your own costs change.
Managing the inventory across multiple facilities arrayed in multiple echelons can be a huge challenge for any company. The complexity arises from the interactions among the echelons, with demands at the lower levels bubbling up and any shortages at the higher levels cascading down.
For most small-to-medium manufacturers and distributors, single-level or single-echelon inventory optimization is at the cutting edge of logistics practice. Multi-echelon inventory optimization (“MEIO”) involves playing the game at an even higher level and is therefore much less common.