The Smart Forecaster
Pursuing best practices in demand planning,
forecasting and inventory optimization
Smart Software is pleased to announce the award of US Patent 11,656,887. The patent directs “technical solutions for analyzing historical demand data of resources in a technology platform to facilitate management of an automated process in the platform.
What is the wiggle effect? It’s when your statistical forecast incorrectly predicts the ups and downs observed in your demand history when there really isn’t a pattern. It’s important to make sure your forecasts don’t wiggle unless there is a real pattern. Here is a transcript from a recent customer where this issue was discussed:
A statistical forecast of zero can cause lots of confusion for forecasters, especially when the historical demand is non-zero. Sure, it’s obvious that demand is trending downward, but should it trend to zero?