Improve Forecast Accuracy, Eliminate Excess Inventory, & Maximize Service Levels
In this video tutorial Dr. Thomas Willemain, co–Founder and SVP Research at Smart Software, presents Automatic Forecasting for Time Series Demand Projections, a specialized algorithmic tournament to determine an appropriate time series model and estimate the parameters to compute the best forecasts methods. Automatic forecasts of large numbers of time series are frequently used in business, some have trend either up or down, and some have seasonality so they are cyclic, and each of those specific patterns requires a suitable technical approach, and an appropriate statistical forecasting method. Tom explains how the tournament computes the best forecasts methods and works through a practical example.
RECENT POSTS
Do your statistical forecasts suffer from the wiggle effect?
What is the wiggle effect? It’s when your statistical forecast incorrectly predicts the ups and downs observed in your demand history when there really isn’t a pattern. It’s important to make sure your forecasts don’t wiggle unless there is a real pattern. Here is a transcript from a recent customer where this issue was discussed:
How to Handle Statistical Forecasts of Zero
A statistical forecast of zero can cause lots of confusion for forecasters, especially when the historical demand is non-zero. Sure, it’s obvious that demand is trending downward, but should it trend to zero?
Smart Software’s article has won 1st place in the 2022 Supply Chain Brief MVP Awards Forecasting category!
Smart Software is pleased to announce that our article “Managing Inventory amid Regime Change” has won 1st place in the Forecasting category of the 2022 Supply Chain Brief MVP Awards.
Recent Posts
Fifteen questions that reveal how forecasts are computed in your companyIn a recent LinkedIn post, I detailed four questions that, when answered, will reveal how forecasts are being used in your business. In this article, we’ve listed questions you can ask that will reveal how forecasts are created. […]
The top 3 reasons why your spreadsheet won’t work for optimizing reorder points on spare partsWe often encounter Excel-based reorder point planning methods. In this post, we’ve detailed an approach that a customer used prior to proceeding with Smart. We describe how their spreadsheet worked, the statistical approaches it relied on, the steps planners went through each planning cycle, and their stated motivations for using (and really liking) this internally developed spreadsheet. […]
How to interpret and manipulate forecast results with different forecast methodsThis blog explains how each forecasting model works using time plots of historical and forecast data. It outlines how to go about choosing which model to use. The examples below show the same history, in red, forecasted with each method, in dark green, compared to the Smart-chosen winning method, in light green. […]
Why Spare Parts Tradeoff Curves are Mission-Critical for Parts PlanningWhen managing service parts, you don’t know what will break and when because part failures are random and sudden. As a result, demand patterns are most often extremely intermittent and lack significant trend or seasonal structure. The number of part-by-location combinations is often in the hundreds of thousands, so it’s not feasible to manually review demand for individual parts. Nevertheless, it is much more straightforward to implement a planning and forecasting system to support spare parts planning than you might think. […]
What to do when a statistical forecast doesn’t make senseSometimes a statistical forecast just doesn’t make sense. Every forecaster has been there. They may double-check that the data was input correctly or review the model settings but are still left scratching their head over why the forecast looks very unlike the demand history. When the occasional forecast doesn’t make sense, it can erode confidence in the entire statistical forecasting process. […]
Inventory Optimization for Manufacturers, Distributors, and MRO
- The top 3 reasons why your spreadsheet won’t work for optimizing reorder points on spare partsWe often encounter Excel-based reorder point planning methods. In this post, we’ve detailed an approach that a customer used prior to proceeding with Smart. We describe how their spreadsheet worked, the statistical approaches it relied on, the steps planners went through each planning cycle, and their stated motivations for using (and really liking) this internally developed spreadsheet. […]
- Why Spare Parts Tradeoff Curves are Mission-Critical for Parts PlanningWhen managing service parts, you don’t know what will break and when because part failures are random and sudden. As a result, demand patterns are most often extremely intermittent and lack significant trend or seasonal structure. The number of part-by-location combinations is often in the hundreds of thousands, so it’s not feasible to manually review demand for individual parts. Nevertheless, it is much more straightforward to implement a planning and forecasting system to support spare parts planning than you might think. […]
Spare Parts Planning Isn’t as Hard as You ThinkWhen managing service parts, you don’t know what will break and when because part failures are random and sudden. As a result, demand patterns are most often extremely intermittent and lack significant trend or seasonal structure. The number of part-by-location combinations is often in the hundreds of thousands, so it’s not feasible to manually review demand for individual parts. Nevertheless, it is much more straightforward to implement a planning and forecasting system to support spare parts planning than you might think. […]
Service-Level-Driven Planning for Service Parts BusinessesService-Level-Driven Service Parts Planning is a four-step process that extends beyond simplified forecasting and rule-of-thumb safety stocks. It provides service parts planners with data-driven, risk-adjusted decision support. […]
