The Smart Forecaster
Pursuing best practices in demand planning,
forecasting and inventory optimization
Improve Forecast Accuracy, Eliminate Excess Inventory, & Maximize Service Levels
In this video tutorial Dr. Thomas Willemain, co–Founder and SVP Research at Smart Software, presents Regression Analysis, a specialized statistical modeling technique to identify and harness leading indicators to achieve more accurate forecasts. Regression analysis is a statistical procedure to estimate the relationship between a response variable and one or more predictor variables. Housing starts, for example, might be a good leading indicator of vinyl siding demand. Tom explains how and when to use regression analysis and works through a practical example.
If you both make and sell things, you own two inventory problems. Companies that sell things must focus relentlessly on having enough product inventory to meet customer demand. Manufacturers and asset intensive industries such as power generation, public transportation, mining, and refining, have an additional inventory concern: having enough spare parts to keep their machines running.
This technical brief reviews the basics of two probabilistic models of machine breakdown. It also relates machine uptime to the adequacy of spare parts inventory.
Service Level Driven Planning (SLDP) is an approach to inventory planning based on exposing the tradeoffs between SKU availability and inventory cost that are at the root of all wise inventory decisions. When organizations understand these tradeoffs, they can make better decisions and have greater variability into the risk of stockouts. SLDP unfolds in four steps: Benchmark, Collaborate, Plan, and Track.
Inventory optimization has become an even higher priority in recent months for many of our customers. Some are finding their products in vastly greater demand; more have the opposite problem. In either case, events like the Covid19 pandemic are forcing a reexamination of standard operating conditions, such as choices of reorder points and order quantities.