Improve Forecast Accuracy, Eliminate Excess Inventory, & Maximize Service Levels
In this video tutorial Dr. Thomas Willemain, co–Founder and SVP Research at Smart Software, presents Automatic Forecasting for Time Series Demand Projections, a specialized algorithmic tournament to determine an appropriate time series model and estimate the parameters to compute the best forecasts methods. Automatic forecasts of large numbers of time series are frequently used in business, some have trend either up or down, and some have seasonality so they are cyclic, and each of those specific patterns requires a suitable technical approach, and an appropriate statistical forecasting method. Tom explains how the tournament computes the best forecasts methods and works through a practical example.
RECENT POSTS
Why Inventory Planning Shouldn’t Rely Exclusively on Simple Rules of Thumb
For too many companies, a critical piece of data fact-finding ― the measurement of demand uncertainty ― is handled by simple but inaccurate rules of thumb. For example, demand planners will often compute safety stock by a user-defined multiple of the forecast or historical average. Or they may configure their ERP to order more when on hand inventory gets to 2 x the average demand over the lead time for important items and 1.5 x for less important ones. This is a huge mistake with costly consequences.
Why MRO Businesses Should Care About Excess Inventory
Do MRO companies genuinely prioritize reducing excess spare parts inventory? From an organizational standpoint, our experience suggests not necessarily. Boardroom discussions typically revolve around expanding fleets, acquiring new customers, meeting service level agreements (SLAs), modernizing infrastructure, and maximizing uptime. In industries where assets supported by spare parts cost hundreds of millions or generate significant revenue (e.g., mining or oil & gas), the value of the inventory just doesn’t raise any eyebrows, and organizations tend to overlook massive amounts of excessive inventory.
Constructive Play with Digital Twins
Those of you who track hot topics will be familiar with the term “digital twin.” Those who have been too busy with work may want to read on and catch up. While there are several definitions of digital twin, here’s one that works well: A digital twin is a dynamic virtual copy of a physical asset, process, system, or environment that looks like and behaves identically to its real-world counterpart. A digital twin ingests data and replicates processes so you can predict possible performance outcomes and issues that the real-world product might undergo.
Recent Posts
Managing Spare Parts Inventory: Best PracticesIn this blog, we’ll explore several effective strategies for managing spare parts inventory, emphasizing the importance of optimizing stock levels, maintaining service levels, and using smart tools to aid in decision-making. Managing spare parts inventory is a critical component for businesses that depend on equipment uptime and service reliability. Unlike regular inventory items, spare parts often have unpredictable demand patterns, making them more challenging to manage effectively. An efficient spare parts inventory management system helps prevent stockouts that can lead to operational downtime and costly delays while also avoiding overstocking that unnecessarily ties up capital and increases holding costs. […]
5 Ways to Improve Supply Chain Decision SpeedThe promise of a digital supply chain has transformed how businesses operate. At its core, it can make rapid, data-driven decisions while ensuring quality and efficiency throughout operations. However, it's not just about having access to more data. Organizations need the right tools and platforms to turn that data into actionable insights. This is where decision-making becomes critical, especially in a landscape where new digital supply chain solutions and AI-driven platforms can support you in streamlining many processes within the decision matrix. […]
12 Causes of Overstocking and Practical SolutionsManaging inventory effectively is critical for maintaining a healthy balance sheet and ensuring that resources are optimally allocated. Here is an in-depth exploration of the main causes of overstocking, their implications, and possible solutions. […]
FAQ: Mastering Smart IP&O for Better Inventory Management.Effective supply chain and inventory management are essential for achieving operational efficiency and customer satisfaction. This blog provides clear and concise answers to some basic and other common questions from our Smart IP&O customers, offering practical insights to overcome typical challenges and enhance your inventory management practices. Focusing on these key areas, we help you transform complex inventory issues into strategic, manageable actions that reduce costs and improve overall performance with Smart IP&O. […]
7 Key Demand Planning Trends Shaping the FutureDemand planning goes beyond simply forecasting product needs; it's about ensuring your business meets customer demands with precision, efficiency, and cost-effectiveness. Latest demand planning technology addresses key challenges like forecast accuracy, inventory management, and market responsiveness. In this blog, we will introduce critical demand planning trends, including data-driven insights, probabilistic forecasting, consensus planning, predictive analytics, scenario modeling, real-time visibility, and multilevel forecasting. These trends will help you stay ahead of the curve, optimize your supply chain, reduce costs, and enhance customer satisfaction, positioning your business for long-term success. […]
Inventory Optimization for Manufacturers, Distributors, and MRO
- Managing Spare Parts Inventory: Best PracticesIn this blog, we’ll explore several effective strategies for managing spare parts inventory, emphasizing the importance of optimizing stock levels, maintaining service levels, and using smart tools to aid in decision-making. Managing spare parts inventory is a critical component for businesses that depend on equipment uptime and service reliability. Unlike regular inventory items, spare parts often have unpredictable demand patterns, making them more challenging to manage effectively. An efficient spare parts inventory management system helps prevent stockouts that can lead to operational downtime and costly delays while also avoiding overstocking that unnecessarily ties up capital and increases holding costs. […]
Innovating the OEM Aftermarket with AI-Driven Inventory OptimizationThe aftermarket sector provides OEMs with a decisive advantage by offering a steady revenue stream and fostering customer loyalty through the reliable and timely delivery of service parts. However, managing inventory and forecasting demand in the aftermarket is fraught with challenges, including unpredictable demand patterns, vast product ranges, and the necessity for quick turnarounds. Traditional methods often fall short due to the complexity and variability of demand in the aftermarket. The latest technologies can analyze large datasets to predict future demand more accurately and optimize inventory levels, leading to better service and lower costs. […]
Future-Proofing Utilities: Advanced Analytics for Supply Chain OptimizationUtilities in the electrical, natural gas, urban water, and telecommunications fields are all asset-intensive and reliant on physical infrastructure that must be properly maintained, updated, and upgraded over time. Maximizing asset uptime and the reliability of physical infrastructure demands effective inventory management, spare parts forecasting, and supplier management. A utility that executes these processes effectively will outperform its peers, provide better returns for its investors and higher service levels for its customers, while reducing its environmental impact. […]
Centering Act: Spare Parts Timing, Pricing, and ReliabilityIn this article, we'll walk you through the process of crafting a spare parts inventory plan that prioritizes availability metrics such as service levels and fill rates while ensuring cost efficiency. We'll focus on an approach to inventory planning called Service Level-Driven Inventory Optimization. Next, we'll discuss how to determine what parts you should include in your inventory and those that might not be necessary. Lastly, we'll explore ways to enhance your service-level-driven inventory plan consistently. […]
