The Smart Forecaster
Pursuing best practices in demand planning, forecasting and inventory optimization
Are you a hero?
The executive suites at most companies are populated by leaders who became corporate “heroes.” These exceptional performers led—and continue to lead—transformative initiatives that drive revenue growth, reduce costs and increase shareholder value.
Heroic accomplishments require a bold new approach, often fueled by a ground-breaking product or service. Harvard Business School professor Clayton M. Christensen speaks of “disruptive innovation,” the extreme case of a product or practice that creates a fundamentally new market or business approach. (The Harvard Business Review YouTube channel features an interview with Prof. Christensen on the subject here.) The trick is to recognize the possibility, and have the courage to do something about it.
This presents challenges on both sides of the fence. The “best in class” technology provider will have a hard time being heard—getting past entrenched vendors and established practices. The heroic practitioner has to want to hear what’s possible, be open to change and have the drive to execute. Building a community of believers and getting that shot to make a difference can be difficult, but that’s why this work is heroic.
You may be a budding hero, or an executive who can spot opportunities and “hero-making” opportunities in your team. I have encountered many of you over the years, and your successes have been our successes. My advice is simple: go for it. Life is short, possibilities are limitless and your courage will be rewarded.
Nelson Hartunian, PhD, co-founded Smart Software, formerly served as President, and currently oversees it as Chairman of the Board. He has, at various times, headed software development, sales and customer service.
Companies launch initiatives to upgrade or improve their sales & operations planning and demand planning processes all the time. Many of these initiatives fail to deliver the results they should. Has your forecasting function fallen short of expectations? Do you struggle with “best practices” that seem incapable of producing accurate results?
In our travels around the industrial scene, we notice that many companies pay more attention to inventory Turns than they should. We would like to deflect some of this attention to more consequential performance metrics.
In a previous post, I discussed one of the thornier problems demand planners sometimes face: working with product demand data characterized by what statisticians call skewness—a situation that can necessitate costly inventory investments. This sort of problematic data is found in several different scenarios. In at least one, the combination of intermittent demand and very effective sales promotions, the problem lends itself to an effective solution.