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Four Common Mistakes when Planning Replenishment Targets

Whether you are using ‘Min/Max’ or ‘reorder point’ and ‘order quantity’ to determine when and how much to restock, your approach might deliver or deny huge efficiencies. Key mistakes to avoid:

 

  1. Not recalibrating regularly
  2. Only reviewing Min/Max when there is a problem
  3. Using Forecasting methods not up to the task
  4. Assuming data is too slow moving or unpredictable for it to matter

 

“We have over 150,000 SKU x Location combinations. Our demand is intermittent. Since it’s slow moving, we don’t need to recalculate our reorder points often. We do so maybe once annually but review the reorder points whenever there is a problem.” – Materials Manager.

 

This reactive approach will lead to millions in excess stock, stock outs, and lots of wasted time reviewing data when “something goes wrong.” Yet, I’ve heard this same refrain from so many inventory professionals over the years. Clearly, we need to do more to share why this thinking is so problematic.

It is true that for many parts, a recalculation of the reorder points with up-to-date historical data and lead times might not change much, especially if patterns such as trend or seasonality aren’t present. However, many parts will benefit from a recalculation, especially if lead times or recent demand has changed. Plus, the likelihood of significant change that necessitates a recalculation increases the longer you wait. Finally, those months with zero demands also influence the probabilities and shouldn’t be ignored outright. The key point though is that it is impossible to know what will change or won’t change in your forecast, so it’s better to recalibrate regularly.

 

Planning Replenishment Targets Software calculate

This standout case from real world data illustrates a scenario where regular and automated recalibration shines—the benefits from quick responses to changing demand patterns like these add up quickly. In the above example, the X axis represents days, and the Y axis represents demand. If you were to wait several months between recalibrating your reorder points, you’d undoubtedly order far too soon. By recalibrating your reorder point far more often, you’ll catch the change in demand enabling much more accurate orders.

 

Rather than wait until you have a problem, recalibrate all parts every planning cycle at least once monthly. Doing so takes advantage of the latest data and proactively adjusts the stocking policy, thus avoiding problems that would cause manual reviews and inventory shortages or excess.

The nature of your (potentially varied) data also needs to be matched with the right forecasting tools. If records for some parts show trend or seasonal patterns, using targeting forecasting methods to accommodate these patterns can make a big difference. Similarly, if the data show frequent zero values (intermittent demand), forecasting methods not built around this special case can easily deliver unreliable results.

Automate, recalibrate and review exceptions. Purpose built software will do this automatically. Think of it another way: is it better to dump a bunch of money into your 401K once per year or “dollar cost average” by depositing smaller, equally sized amounts throughout the year. Recalibrating policies regularly will yield maximized returns over time, just as dollar cost averaging will do for your investment portfolio.

How often do you recalibrate your stocking policies? Why?

 

 

Smart Software and 21 Tech Announce Strategic Partnership

Belmont, Mass., October 2022 – Smart Software, Inventory optimization, demand planning, and forecasting software leader, and 21Tech, a well-established asset management consulting and implementation company, today announced their partnership to address the supply chain planning needs of Large Companies and State and Local agencies. 21Tech, LLC will sell and deploy Smart’s next-generation cloud platform, Smart Inventory Planning & Optimization (Smart IP&O™) as an integral part of its Enterprise Asset Management Practice.

21Tech serves a diverse client base, including Fortune 100 companies, public transit agencies, utilities, and state and local agencies across the U.S. and Canada. They specialize in providing a comprehensive ecosystem for a client’s needs as it relates to asset maturity and thought leadership in asset management. This includes asset management process improvements,  system implementations, and managed services, where they employ proven methodologies in project management, business process re-engineering, and organizational change management to drive customers forward in achieving their goals. More recently, public and private sector organizations have realized significant benefits from replacing, supplementing, or enhancing their nice and/or proprietary in-house applications with top-tier commercial-off-the-shelf (COTS) applications. 21Tech delivers highly skilled and in-demand technology resources for mission-critical projects.

Smart IP&O is Smart Software’s integrated suite of web applications for collaborative demand planning, inventory optimization, and supply chain analytics. It operates as a transparent extension of the customer’s ERP and Asset Management system of choice, returning optimized demand forecasts, and stocking policies that balance costs and service level requirements across the distribution network.  Smart’s unique approach to planning intermittent demand is especially impactful for public utilities and transit agencies considering the prevalence of spare parts with highly sporadic, seemingly unforecastable usage.

“Smart has proven that its inventory optimization and forecasting solutions are a key fit in the ecosystem of solutions needed to drive asset maturity for public transit and utilities. We see them as a strategic component in integrating with Hexagon EAM for our customers, and look forward to bringing this added efficiency to our client base” says 21Tech CEO Dilraj Kahai.

“Maximizing the benefits our solutions can provide requires the expertise and perspective to consider requirements, set goals, and to develop the supporting business process that ensures adoption and benefits. These are the qualities that 21Tech brings to the table and we look forward to our joint success” says Greg Hartunian, President and CEO

 

About 21Tech, LLC. 

21Tech was founded in 1996 to provide technology leadership and services to government and commercial organizations. 21Tech’s Enterprise Asset Management practice provides software evaluations, implementations, integrations, enhancements, and support services. Additionally, 21Tech’s strategic consulting services provide leading practice process design, assessment, and asset management maturity roadmap services to help ensure its clients realize full benefits of its asset and inventory management software investments. As a corporate member of the Institute of Asset Management, 21Tech ensures its services and solutions align with recognized, international standards, as they deliver to customers in the U.S., Canada, and worldwide. 21Tech can be found at www.21Tech.com  and its transit-specific asset management solution can be found at RapidTAM.com

 

About Smart Software, Inc.

Founded in 1981, Smart Software, Inc. is a leader in providing businesses with enterprise-wide demand forecasting, planning and inventory optimization solutions. Smart Software’s demand forecasting and inventory optimization solutions have helped thousands of users worldwide, including customers at mid-market enterprises and Fortune 500 companies, such as Disney, Arizona Public Service, and Ameren. Smart Inventory Planning & Optimization gives demand planners the tools to handle sales seasonality, promotions, new and aging products, multi-dimensional hierarchies, and intermittently demanded service parts and capital goods items. It also provides inventory managers with accurate estimates of the optimal inventory and safety stock required to meet future orders and achieve desired service levels. Smart Software is headquartered in Belmont, Massachusetts, and can be found online at www.smartcorp.com.

 

For more information, please contact Smart Software, Inc., Four Hill Road, Belmont, MA 02478.
Phone: 1-800-SMART-99 (800-762-7899); FAX: 1-617-489-2748; E-mail: info@smartcorp.com

 

 

Smart Software to Present at Community Summit North America

Smart Software’s Channel Sales Director and Enterprise Solution Engineer, to present three sessions at this year’s Community Summit event in Orlando, FL.  

Belmont, MA, – Smart Software, Inc., provider of industry-leading demand forecasting, planning, and inventory optimization solutions, today announced that its Channel Sales Director, Pete Reynolds, and its Enterprise Solution Engineer Erik Subatis, have been selected to present three sessions at the Dynamics Community Summit NA. They will explain how to plan using Collaborative forecasting, how to Maximize Service Levels, and how to Forecast Accurately during the three sessions.

Smart Software will also be exhibiting at the conference showcasing Smart Inventory Planning & Optimization and bi-directional integrations to Microsoft Dynamics NAV, Microsoft Dynamics 365 Business Central, and Microsoft Dynamics AX.

Smart Software Presentations at Community Summit North America 2022

  • Maximize Service Levels and Minimize Inventory Costs
    • Session Date: 10/12/2022   2:00 PM -2:45 PM
    • Room Number: Tampa 2 – Convention Center, Level 2
  • Predict and Plan the Sales Cycle Using Collaborative Forecasting
    •  Session Date: 10/13/2022   9:00 AM -9:45 AM
    • Room Number: Sarasota 1 – Convention Center, Level 2
  • 5 Demand Planning Tips for Calculating Forecast Uncertainty
    • Session Date: 10/13/2022   10:00 AM -11:00 AM
    • Room Number: Osceola B – Convention Center, Level 2

 

Community Summit North America is the largest independent gathering of the Microsoft business applications ecosystem of users, partners, and ISVs on the planet. Come by booth #1122 to learn about probabilistic forecasting and optimization methods that can make a big difference to your bottom line. Whether you are a seasoned Microsoft user looking for new ways to optimize your supply chain or are new to Dynamics Applications and want to understand how a planning platform can help drive revenue increases and inventory reductions, please stop by.

 

About Smart Software, Inc.

Founded in 1981, Smart Software, Inc. is a leader in providing businesses with enterprise-wide demand forecasting, planning, and inventory optimization solutions.  Smart Software’s demand forecasting and inventory optimization solutions have helped thousands of users worldwide, including customers at mid-market enterprises and Fortune 500 companies, such as Disney, Arizona Public Service, and Ameren. Smart Inventory Planning & Optimization gives demand planners the tools to handle sales seasonality, promotions, new and aging products, multi-dimensional hierarchies, and intermittently demanded service parts and capital goods items.  It also provides inventory managers with accurate estimates of the optimal inventory and safety stock required to meet future orders and achieve desired service levels.  Smart Software is headquartered in Belmont, Massachusetts, and can be found on the World Wide Web at www.smartcorp.com.

Community Summit 2021 Smart Software Inventory planning

For more information, please contact Smart Software, Inc., Four Hill Road, Belmont, MA 02478.
Phone: 1-800-SMART-99 (800-762-7899); FAX: 1-617-489-2748; E-mail: info@smartcorp.com

 

 

Smart Software to lead a webinar as part of the WERC Solutions Partner Program

Belmont, MA, – Smart Software, Inc., provider of industry-leading demand forecasting, planning, and inventory optimization solutions, today announced that Greg Hartunian, President and CEO at Smart Software, will lead a 30-minute webinar as part of the WERC Solutions Partner Program 

The presentation will focus on how a leading Electric Utility implemented Smart Inventory Planning and Optimization (Smart IP&O) as part of the company’s strategic supply chain optimization (SCO) initiative. Smart IP&O was implemented in just 90 days, enabling the utility to optimize its reorder points and order quantities for over 250,000 spare parts. During the first phase of the implementation, the platform helped the electric utility reduce inventory by $9,000,000 while maintaining service levels.

Finally, the webinar will conclude by showing Smart IP&O in a Live Demo.

 

Warehousing Education and Research Council (WERC)

WERC is a professional organization focused on logistics management and its role in the supply chain. Since being founded in 1977, WERC has maintained a strategic vision to continuously offer resources that help distribution practitioners and suppliers stay on top in our dynamic, variable field. In an increasingly complex world, distribution logistics professionals make sense of things so that people get their products and services, companies deliver on their commitments, economies grow, and communities thrive.

WERC powers distribution logistics professionals to do their jobs, excel in their careers and make a difference in the world. WERC helps its members and companies succeed by creating unparalleled learning experiences, offering quality networking opportunities, and accessing research-driven industry information.

 

About Smart Software, Inc.
Founded in 1981, Smart Software, Inc. is a leader in providing businesses with enterprise-wide demand forecasting, planning and inventory optimization solutions.  Smart Software’s demand forecasting and inventory optimization solutions have helped thousands of users worldwide, including customers at mid-market enterprises and Fortune 500 companies, such as Mitsubishi, Siemens, Disney, FedEx, MARS, and The Home Depot.  Smart Inventory Planning & Optimization gives demand planners the tools to handle sales seasonality, promotions, new and aging products, multi-dimensional hierarchies, and intermittently demanded service parts and capital goods items.  It also provides inventory managers with accurate estimates of the optimal inventory and safety stock required to meet future orders and achieve desired service levels.  Smart Software is headquartered in Belmont,

 

For more information, please contact Smart Software, Inc., Four Hill Road, Belmont, MA 02478.
Phone: 1-800-SMART-99 (800-762-7899); FAX: 1-617-489-2748; E-mail: info@smartcorp.com

 

 

The Supply Chain Blame Game: Top 3 Excuses for Inventory Shortage and Excess

1. Blaming Shortages on Lead Time Variability
Suppliers will often be late, sometimes by a lot. Lead time delays and supply variability are supply chain facts of life, yet inventory carrying organizations are often caught by surprise when a supplier is late.  An effective inventory planning process embraces these facts of life and develops policies that effectively account for this uncertainty.  Sure, there will be times when lead time delays come out of nowhere.  But most often the stocking policies like reorder points, safety stocks, and Min/Max levels aren’t recalibrated often enough to catch changes in the lead time over time.  Many companies only review the reorder point after it has been breached, instead of recalibrating after each new lead time receipt.  We’ve observed situations where the Min/Max settings are only recalibrated annually or are even entirely manual.  If you have a mountain of parts using old Min/Max levels and associated lead times that were relevant a year ago, it should be no surprise that you don’t have enough inventory to hold you until the next order arrives.

 

2. Blaming Excess on Bad Sales/Customer Forecasts
Forecasts from your customers or your sales team are often intentionally over-estimated to ensure supply, in response to past inventory shortages where they were left out to dry. Or, the demand forecasts are inaccurate simply because the sales team doesn’t really know what their customer demand is going to be but are forced to give a number. Demand Variability is another supply chain fact of life, so planning processes need to do a better job account for it.  Why should rely on sales teams to forecast when they best serve the company by selling? Why bother playing the game of feigning acceptance of customer forecasts when both sides know it is often nothing more than a WAG?  A better way is to accept the uncertainty and agree on a degree of stockout risk that is acceptable across groups of items.  Once the stockout risk is agreed to, you can generate an accurate estimate of the safety stock needed to counter the demand variability.  The catch is getting buy-in, since you may not be able to afford super high service levels across all items.  Customers must be willing to pay a higher price per unit for you to deliver extremely high service levels.  Sales people must accept that certain items are more likely to have backorders if they prioritize inventory investment on other items.  Using a consensus safety stock process ensures you are properly buffering and setting the right expectations.  When you do this, you free all parties from having to play the prediction game they were not equipped to play in the first place.

 

3. Blaming Problems on Bad Data
“Garbage In/Garbage Out” is a common excuse for why now is not the right time to invest in planning software. Of course, it is true that if you feed bad data into a model, you won’t get good results, but here’s the thing:  someone, somewhere in the organization is planning inventory, building a forecast, and making decisions on what to purchase. Are they doing this blindly, or are they using data they have curated in a spreadsheet to help them make inventory planning decisions? Hopefully, the latter.  Combine that internal knowledge with software, automating data import from the ERP, and data cleansing.  Once harmonized, your planning software will provide continually updated, well-structured demand and lead time signals that now make effective demand forecasting and inventory optimization possible.  Smart Software cofounder Tom Willemain wrote in an IBF newsletter that “many data problems derive from data having been neglected until a forecasting project made them important.” So, start that forecasting project, because step one is making sure that “what goes in” is a pristine, documented, and accurate demand signal.