{"id":1068,"date":"2020-02-18T08:33:53","date_gmt":"2020-02-18T12:33:53","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.smartforecaster.net\/?p=404"},"modified":"2022-12-20T15:13:54","modified_gmt":"2022-12-20T19:13:54","slug":"beheer-van-de-voorraad-van-gepromote-items","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/smartcorp.com\/nl\/blog\/managing-the-inventory-of-promoted-items\/","title":{"rendered":"Beheer van de inventaris van gepromote artikelen"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>[et_pb_section fb_built=&#8221;1&#8243; admin_label=&#8221;section&#8221; module_class=&#8221;blog_css&#8221; _builder_version=&#8221;3.22&#8243; transparent_background=&#8221;off&#8221; make_fullwidth=&#8221;off&#8221; use_custom_width=&#8221;off&#8221; width_unit=&#8221;on&#8221;][et_pb_row admin_label=&#8221;row&#8221; _builder_version=&#8221;3.25&#8243; background_size=&#8221;initial&#8221; background_position=&#8221;top_left&#8221; background_repeat=&#8221;repeat&#8221;][et_pb_column type=&#8221;4_4&#8243; 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.et_pb_column .et_pb_widget:nth-child(n) {<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> width: 100% !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> margin: 0 7.5% 7.5% 0 !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->.blog_col {<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> width: 56% !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> display: inline-block;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> float: left;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->.sitebar_col{<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> width: 230px !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> display: inline-block;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> float: right;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --><!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->@media (max-width: 930px){<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --><!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->.bloggg>div{<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> width: 85%;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->@media (max-width: 870px){<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --><!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->.bloggg>div{<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> width: 90%;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->@media (max-width: 830px){<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --><!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->.bloggg>div{<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> width: 97%;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->@media (max-width: 767px){<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->.sitebar_col {<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->display:none;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->.blog_col {<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> width: 100% !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> display: block;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> float: none;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->.blog_glob {<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> width: 100%;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> float: none;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> display: block;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->.blog_glob article {<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> width: 100%;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> padding: 45px 20px 10px 20px;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->.ghj {<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->width: 280px;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> margin: auto;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->padding-bottom:20px;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->.et_pb_post .entry-featured-image-url {<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> float: none !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> margin-right: 0 !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> display: block !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> position: relative !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> bottom: 0 !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> text-align: center !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->.post-content {<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> display: none !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --><!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->.blog_top_title {<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> line-height: 38px;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> font-size: 34px;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->.blog_glob article h2 a {<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> line-height: 28px;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->.blog_bg {<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> padding: 50px 15px;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --><\/style>\n<p>[\/et_pb_code][et_pb_code admin_label=&#8221;POST CSS&#8221;]<\/p>\n<style><!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->.post-main_text:after {<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> content: '';<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> display: block;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> clear: both;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --><!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->@media (max-width: 1320px){<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->.blog_glob .relposts article img {<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> width: 160px !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> height: 160px !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->.relposts article {<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> width: 180px !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->@media (max-width: 1160px){<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->.relposts article:nth-child(2) {<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> display:none !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->.blog_glob .relposts article .entry-title{<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> height: 85px !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->.relposts{<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> margin: auto;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> float: none;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> width: 390px;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --><!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->.relposts:after {<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> content: '';<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> display: block;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> clear: both;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->.blog_glob .relposts article h2 a{<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> font-size: 13.08px !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> color: #0d4c92;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --><!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> }<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->.relposts article {<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> margin-bottom: 25px !important ;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->.blog_glob .relposts article .entry-title{<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->margin-top:2px;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> line-height: 0.7em !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> height: 70px ;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->.relposts article{<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> width: 212px ;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> display: inline-block !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> float: left !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->.relposts article:nth-child(1) {<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> margin-right: 25px ;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->.relposts article:nth-child(2) {<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> margin-right: 25px;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->.blog_glob .relposts article{<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->display: inline-block;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> padding: 10px 10px 30px 10px !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> box-shadow: 0px 0px 5px silver !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->.blog_glob article{<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> padding: 10px 10px 30px 10px !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> box-shadow: 0px 0px 5px silver !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->.relposts .et_pb_post .entry-featured-image-url {<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> float: none !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> margin-right: 0 !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> display: block !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> position: relative !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> bottom: 0 !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->.post-content{<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->display:none;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->.relposts_title{<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> text-align: center;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> font-size: 26px;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> color: #0d4c92;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> font-weight: 600;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> margin-bottom: 15px;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> margin-top: 70px;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->.widget_categories_jj{<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> margin-top: 60px;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> margin-bottom: 60px;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->.widget_categories_jj ul li a {<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> text-decoration: none;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> font-size: 16px;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> line-height: 32px;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> color: #3c3c3c;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->.widget_categories_jj ul {<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> padding: 0 !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> margin-top: 0;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> list-style-type: none;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --><!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->.categ_title {<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> font-family: 'Open Sans', sans-serif !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> color: #0d4c92;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> font-size: 26px;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> padding-bottom: 30px;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> border-bottom: 1px solid #a3a3a3;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->.widget_categories_jj ul li{<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->text-decoration: none;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> font-size: 16px;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> line-height: 32px;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> color: #3c3c3c;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->.widget_categories_jj ul li {<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> list-style-type: none;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> border-bottom: 1px solid #a3a3a3;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> padding: 10px 0;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->.share_blog{<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->margin:5px !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->div.wp_rp_content {<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> display: none !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->.post-soc-icon img{<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> width: inherit !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> height: inherit !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> .post_soc {<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> position: absolute;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> margin-left: -55px;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->.bloggg{<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> position: relative;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> .post-soc-icon a img {<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> display: block;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> margin-bottom: 7px;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->.post-soc-icon a {<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> text-decoration: none;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->.post-main_text ul li:before {<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> content: '';<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> display: inline-block;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> width: 7px;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> height: 7px;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> background: #00964d;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> border-radius: 50%;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> margin-bottom: 2px;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> margin-right: 8px;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->.post-main_text ul li {<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> list-style-type: none;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> line-height: 30px;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->.post-main_text {<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->text-align: justify; <!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> color: #404040;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> font-size: 16px !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->.post-main_text a{<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->color: #0d4c92;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> font-style: italic;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->.post-main_text span{<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> font-style: italic;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->.post-main_text strong{<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> font-family: 'Open Sans', sans-serif !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> color: #0d4c92;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> font-weight: 400;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> font-size: 20px;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->.et_post_meta_wrapper img{<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> width: 400px !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> height: 280px !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> float: left;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> margin-right: 20px;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->.et_post_meta_wrapper .entry-title{<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> font-size: 26px;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> color: #0d4c92;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> font-weight: 600;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> margin-bottom: 8px;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> text-decoration: none;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> font-family: 'Open Sans', sans-serif !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->.single.et_pb_pagebuilder_layout.et_full_width_page .et_post_meta_wrapper {<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> width: 100% !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->.post-meta>a, .comments-number{<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->display:none !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->.single.et_pb_pagebuilder_layout.et_full_width_page .et_post_meta_wrapper {<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> padding-top: 0 !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->.blog_bg{<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->padding: 120px 15px;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->#left-area {<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> padding-bottom: 0 !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->.single .et_pb_post{<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> padding-bottom: 0 !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->.single .et_pb_post{<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> margin-bottom: 0 !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->@media (max-width: 767px){<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->.subscribe_bg{<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> margin-bottom: 60px;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->.ghj {<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> margin-bottom: -60px !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->.ghj{<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->margin-top:40px;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->.et_post_meta_wrapper img {<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> width: auto !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> height: auto !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> float: left;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> margin-right: 20px;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> max-width: 100% !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->#categories-bbb{<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> padding-top: 10px;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> margin-top: 0;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> margin-bottom: 10px;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> border-bottom: 2px solid #0d4c92;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> border-top: 2px solid #0d4c92;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> text-align: center;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->.categ_title{<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->font-weight: bold;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->color: #0d4c92;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> font-size: 26px;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> padding-bottom: 30px;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> border-bottom: none;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> padding-bottom: 10px;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->.categ_title:after {<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> content: 'f0dd ';<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> color: #0d4c92;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> font-family: fontawesome;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> margin-left: 5px;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->#categories-bbb ul{<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> display: none;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->#categories-bbb ul.baccc {<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> display: block !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->@media (max-width: 850px){<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->.et_post_meta_wrapper img {<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> width: auto !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> height: auto !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> float: none !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> text-align: center !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> margin: auto !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> max-width: 100% !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->.sitebar_col {<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> width: 190px !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --><\/style>\n<p>[\/et_pb_code][et_pb_code]<script><!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->jQuery(document).ready(function($) {<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> \/\/ Stuff to do as soon as the DOM is ready. Use $() w\/o colliding with other libs<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --><!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --><!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> $(window).scroll(function() {<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->if ($(window).scrollTop() >= 400 ) {<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> $(\"#tabb\").css(\"position\",\"fixed\");<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> $(\"#tabb\").css(\"top\",\"170px\");<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->if ($(window).scrollTop() < 400 ) {<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> $(\"#tabb\").css(\"position\",\"absolute\");<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> $(\"#tabb\").css(\"top\",\"55px\"); <!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->if ($(window).width() < 767 ) {<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> $(\"#tabb\").css(\"position\",\"relative\");<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> $(\"#tabb\").css(\"top\",\"0px\");<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> }); <!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] 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[et_pb_line_break_holder] --> border-color: #d6d6d6 !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> height: 44px !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> border-width: 1px !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> margin-right: 20px !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> background: transparent !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> border-bottom: 1px solid #ccc !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> font-family: 'Open Sans', sans-serif !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->.comment-form-email input{<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> width: 270px !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> border-left: none !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> border-right: none !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> border-top: none !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> border-color: #d6d6d6 !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> height: 44px !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> border-width: 1px !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> margin-right: 5px !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> background: transparent !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> border-bottom: 1px solid #ccc !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> font-family: 'Open Sans', sans-serif !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->.comment-form-comment textarea{<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> display: block;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> width: 560px !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> margin-top: 55px;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> border-left: none !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> border-right: none !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> border-top: none !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> height: 70px;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> border-color: #d6d6d6 !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> font-family: 'Open Sans', sans-serif;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> 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box_shadow_vertical_button_tablet=&#8221;0px&#8221; box_shadow_vertical_button_phone=&#8221;0px&#8221; box_shadow_blur_button_tablet=&#8221;40px&#8221; box_shadow_blur_button_phone=&#8221;40px&#8221; box_shadow_spread_button_tablet=&#8221;0px&#8221; box_shadow_spread_button_phone=&#8221;0px&#8221; text_shadow_horizontal_length_tablet=&#8221;0em&#8221; text_shadow_horizontal_length_phone=&#8221;0em&#8221; text_shadow_vertical_length_tablet=&#8221;0em&#8221; text_shadow_vertical_length_phone=&#8221;0em&#8221; text_shadow_blur_strength_tablet=&#8221;0em&#8221; text_shadow_blur_strength_phone=&#8221;0em&#8221; sticky_transition=&#8221;on&#8221; sticky_enabled=&#8221;0&#8243;]<\/p>\n<h1 style=\"text-align: center;\">\u00a0Pursuing best practices in demand planning,<\/h1>\n<h1 style=\"text-align: center;\">forecasting and inventory optimization<\/h1>\n<p>[\/et_pb_slide][\/et_pb_fullwidth_slider][\/et_pb_section][et_pb_section fb_built=&#8221;1&#8243; specialty=&#8221;on&#8221; parallax_method_1=&#8221;off&#8221; parallax_method_2=&#8221;off&#8221; module_class_1=&#8221;blog_col&#8221; module_class_2=&#8221;sitebar_col&#8221; module_class=&#8221;bloggg&#8221; _builder_version=&#8221;3.22&#8243; transparent_background=&#8221;off&#8221; make_fullwidth=&#8221;off&#8221; use_custom_width=&#8221;off&#8221; width_unit=&#8221;on&#8221;][et_pb_column type=&#8221;2_3&#8243; specialty_columns=&#8221;2&#8243; _builder_version=&#8221;3.25&#8243; custom_padding=&#8221;|||&#8221; custom_padding__hover=&#8221;|||&#8221;][et_pb_row_inner admin_label=&#8221;Row&#8221; module_class=&#8221;blog_glob&#8221; _builder_version=&#8221;3.25&#8243;][et_pb_column_inner saved_specialty_column_type=&#8221;2_3&#8243; _builder_version=&#8221;3.0.47&#8243; custom_padding=&#8221;|||&#8221; custom_padding__hover=&#8221;|||&#8221;][et_pb_code module_class=&#8221;append_categ&#8221;]<script><!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->jQuery(document).ready(function($) {<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> \/\/ Stuff to do as soon as the DOM is ready. Use $() w\/o colliding with other libs<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --><!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->$(window).on('load', function(){<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> if ($(window).width() < 767 ) {<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> $(\".append_categ\").append($(\"#categories-bbb\"))<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> }<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}); <!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --><!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->});<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --><!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --><\/script>[\/et_pb_code][et_pb_text admin_label=&#8221;CONTENT&#8221; module_class=&#8221;post-main_text&#8221; _builder_version=&#8221;3.27.4&#8243; background_size=&#8221;initial&#8221; background_position=&#8221;top_left&#8221; background_repeat=&#8221;repeat&#8221; z_index_tablet=&#8221;500&#8243; text_text_shadow_horizontal_length_tablet=&#8221;0px&#8221; text_text_shadow_vertical_length_tablet=&#8221;0px&#8221; text_text_shadow_blur_strength_tablet=&#8221;1px&#8221; link_text_shadow_horizontal_length_tablet=&#8221;0px&#8221; link_text_shadow_vertical_length_tablet=&#8221;0px&#8221; link_text_shadow_blur_strength_tablet=&#8221;1px&#8221; ul_text_shadow_horizontal_length_tablet=&#8221;0px&#8221; ul_text_shadow_vertical_length_tablet=&#8221;0px&#8221; ul_text_shadow_blur_strength_tablet=&#8221;1px&#8221; ol_text_shadow_horizontal_length_tablet=&#8221;0px&#8221; ol_text_shadow_vertical_length_tablet=&#8221;0px&#8221; ol_text_shadow_blur_strength_tablet=&#8221;1px&#8221; quote_text_shadow_horizontal_length_tablet=&#8221;0px&#8221; quote_text_shadow_vertical_length_tablet=&#8221;0px&#8221; quote_text_shadow_blur_strength_tablet=&#8221;1px&#8221; header_text_shadow_horizontal_length_tablet=&#8221;0px&#8221; header_text_shadow_vertical_length_tablet=&#8221;0px&#8221; header_text_shadow_blur_strength_tablet=&#8221;1px&#8221; header_2_text_shadow_horizontal_length_tablet=&#8221;0px&#8221; header_2_text_shadow_vertical_length_tablet=&#8221;0px&#8221; header_2_text_shadow_blur_strength_tablet=&#8221;1px&#8221; header_3_text_shadow_horizontal_length_tablet=&#8221;0px&#8221; header_3_text_shadow_vertical_length_tablet=&#8221;0px&#8221; header_3_text_shadow_blur_strength_tablet=&#8221;1px&#8221; header_4_text_shadow_horizontal_length_tablet=&#8221;0px&#8221; header_4_text_shadow_vertical_length_tablet=&#8221;0px&#8221; header_4_text_shadow_blur_strength_tablet=&#8221;1px&#8221; header_5_text_shadow_horizontal_length_tablet=&#8221;0px&#8221; header_5_text_shadow_vertical_length_tablet=&#8221;0px&#8221; header_5_text_shadow_blur_strength_tablet=&#8221;1px&#8221; header_6_text_shadow_horizontal_length_tablet=&#8221;0px&#8221; header_6_text_shadow_vertical_length_tablet=&#8221;0px&#8221; header_6_text_shadow_blur_strength_tablet=&#8221;1px&#8221; box_shadow_horizontal_tablet=&#8221;0px&#8221; box_shadow_vertical_tablet=&#8221;0px&#8221; box_shadow_blur_tablet=&#8221;40px&#8221; box_shadow_spread_tablet=&#8221;0px&#8221; use_border_color=&#8221;off&#8221;]<\/p>\n<p>In a <a href=\"https:\/\/smartcorp.com\/the-scourge-of-skewness\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">previous post<\/a>, I discussed one of the thornier problems demand planners sometimes face: working with product demand data characterized by what statisticians call skewness \u2014 a situation that can necessitate costly inventory investments. This sort of problematic data is found in several different scenarios. In at least one, the combination of intermittent demand and very effective sales promotions, the problem lends itself to an effective solution.<\/p>\n<p>Reviewing terms, recall that \u201cservice level\u201d is the probability of not stocking out while waiting for a replenishment order to arrive, while \u201cfill rate\u201d is the percentage of demand that is satisfied immediately from stock. In my previous post, &#8220;The Scourge of Skewness&#8221;, I pointed out that a certain type of demand distribution, having a \u201clong right tail\u201d, will lead to fill rates that can be much lower than service levels. I also pointed out that sometimes the only way to improve the fill rate is to increase the target service level to an unusually high level, which can be expensive.<\/p>\n<p>In this post, I\u2019ll look at solving the problem in one special case: skewness resulting from effective sales promotions mixed with \u201cintermittent demand\u201d. Intermittent demand has a large proportion of zero values, with nonzero values mixed in at random. Successful sales promotions, obviously positive, have a downside: they can confuse the \u201cdemand signal\u201d with spikes in your demand history, and can undermine forecasts and bias safety stock calculations. When intermittent demand and effective sales promotions are the source of your data\u2019s skewness, methods exist to work around the problem to achieve both higher fill rates and more accurate demand forecasts.<\/p>\n<p>How Promotions Increase Skewness<\/p>\n<p>Successful promotions abruptly increase item demand. This creates anomalies, or \u201coutliers\u201d, which contribute to forming a skewed distribution. Knowing when promotions occurred in the past, we can adjust an item\u2019s record of past demand. We produce an alternate demand history as if there had been no promotions, by replacing the outliers with values more representative of the \u201cnatural\u201d level of demand. These adjustments reduce demand skewness. Reduced skewness can lead to significant reductions in both expected forecasts and safety stocks, which add together to form reorder points.<\/p>\n<p>Successful promotions are likely to be repeated. When that happens, the promotion effects can be added in to demand forecasts to increase their accuracy. The effect of future promotions on inventory management will be to increase the risk of stockouts, so a sensible response is to work at the operational level to build up temporary supply, in a quantity keyed to the estimated impact of prior promotions on the effected items.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-1299\" src=\"https:\/\/smartcorp.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/12\/figure-1-2.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"946\" height=\"380\" srcset=\"https:\/\/smartcorp.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/12\/figure-1-2.jpg 946w, https:\/\/smartcorp.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/12\/figure-1-2-300x121.jpg 300w, https:\/\/smartcorp.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/12\/figure-1-2-768x308.jpg 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 946px) 100vw, 946px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Using Event Modeling to Improve Demand Forecasting<\/p>\n<p>It\u2019s possible to model the impact of like events, and apply this to planned events in the future. Doing so can improve your forecast in two big ways: by projecting the demand jolt you expect from a planned event; and rationalizing the spikes in the past that were caused by events, making your baseline activity more visible and more accurately forecastable. We do a lot of this in SmartForecasts, so allow me to use our experience there to show you what I mean.<\/p>\n<p>Event Modeling entails the following steps:<br \/>\u2022 Automatically estimating the impact of previous promotions (which is a useful result in itself).<br \/>\u2022 Adjusting historical demand to statistically remove the effect of promotions.<br \/>\u2022 Creating promotion-free forecasts.<br \/>\u2022 Revising the forecasts for any future time periods in which promotions are planned.<\/p>\n<p>We call this this type of analysis \u201cPromo forecasting\u201d. We use the word \u201cpromotions\u201d to describe what you do yourself to improve your results. We use \u201cevents\u201d to describe what the world does to you, usually to your detriment; examples include strikes, power outages, warehouse fires and other unlucky happenings.<\/p>\n<p>To understand how Event Modeling can help you cope with skewness when doing demand forecasting for high-volume items, consider Figures 1-3.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-medium wp-image-1299\" src=\"https:\/\/smartcorp.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/12\/figure-1-2-300x121.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"121\" srcset=\"https:\/\/smartcorp.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/12\/figure-1-2-300x121.jpg 300w, https:\/\/smartcorp.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/12\/figure-1-2-768x308.jpg 768w, https:\/\/smartcorp.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/12\/figure-1-2.jpg 946w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Figure 1 shows that this item\u2019s demand pattern is clearly seasonal, and the forecast is both seasonal and \u201ctight\u201d, meaning that the forecast uncertainty interval (\u201cmargin of error\u201d, shown in cyan lines) is very narrow.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-medium wp-image-1300\" src=\"https:\/\/smartcorp.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/12\/figure-2-300x119.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"119\" srcset=\"https:\/\/smartcorp.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/12\/figure-2-300x119.jpg 300w, https:\/\/smartcorp.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/12\/figure-2-768x304.jpg 768w, https:\/\/smartcorp.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/12\/figure-2.jpg 946w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Figure 2 shows an alternative history in which a promotion in June 2014 reversed the usual seasonal low associated with June sales. This demand pattern was forecasted using the Automatic forecasting tournament in SmartForecasts, as in Figure 1. This time, the promotion scrambled the seasonal pattern enough to create an inappropriate non-seasonal forecast, and one that has a much larger margin of error.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-medium wp-image-1301\" src=\"https:\/\/smartcorp.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/12\/figure-3-300x121.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"121\" srcset=\"https:\/\/smartcorp.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/12\/figure-3-300x121.jpg 300w, https:\/\/smartcorp.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/12\/figure-3-768x308.jpg 768w, https:\/\/smartcorp.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/12\/figure-3.jpg 946w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Finally, Figure 3 shows how Promo forecasting handles the same promoted scenario, retaining a seasonal forecast and building into the forecast an estimate of the effect of a planned repeat promotion in 2015.<\/p>\n<p>The Case of Intermittent Demand<\/p>\n<p>In Figure 1, the item was a high-volume finished good and the task was demand forecasting. Promo modeling is also useful when dealing with the task of setting safety stocks and reorder points for items with intermittent demand, whether the items are finished goods, components or spare parts. Intermittent demand very often has a skewed distribution that makes it difficult to achieve high item availability with a small investment in inventory.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-medium wp-image-1302\" src=\"https:\/\/smartcorp.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/12\/figure-4-300x218.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"218\" srcset=\"https:\/\/smartcorp.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/12\/figure-4-300x218.jpg 300w, https:\/\/smartcorp.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/12\/figure-4.jpg 675w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Figure 4 illustrates the problem that a successful promotion can accidentally create for inventory management. If such a spike arises from the natural, un-promoted demand, then the only way to maintain high fill rates is to provide safety stocks large enough to cope with these random surges. In this case, the big spike in demand of 500 units in February 2013 was the result of a one-time promotion.<\/p>\n<p>Taking Account of Promotions to Improve Inventory Management<\/p>\n<p>Unwittingly treating the spike in the example above as part of the natural demand variability results in a poor fill rate. To achieve a target service level of, say, 95% with a lead time of one month would require a reorder point of 38 units, computed as the sum of an expected forecast over the one month replenishment lead time of 21 units supplemented by a safety stock of 17 units. This investment would result in a disappointing fill rate of only 36%.<\/p>\n<p>However, recognizing that the spike is a one-time promotion and replacing the 500 units with 0 obviously would make a big difference. The reorder point would drop from 38 units to 31 (the sum of an expected demand of 7 units and a safety stock of 24 units) and the fill rate would increase to 94%.<\/p>\n<p>Of course, it is not ok to just throw out inconvenient demand spikes whenever they make life uncomfortable; there has to be a valid \u201cbusiness story\u201d behind the adjustment of historical demand. If the spike is the result of a data processing error, then by all means, fix it. If the spike coincides with a promotion, then replacing the spike with, say, the median demand (often zero, as in this example) will result in a much more sustainable inventory investment that still meets aggressive performance targets. Future promotions of the same type on the same item will require some extra effort to prepare for the temporary surge in demand, but the recommended reorder point will be correct in the long run.<\/p>\n<p><em>Thomas Willemain, PhD, co-founded Smart Software and currently serves as Senior Vice President for Research. 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[et_pb_line_break_holder] --> float: none;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> margin: auto;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->.f_learn_more_text ul li{<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> text-align: center;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->.glob-footer {<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> text-align: center;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> .f_contact_us_bg{<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->margin-bottom:20px;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->.f_contact_us_text img {<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> margin-right: 6px;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->.f_contact_us_share img {<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> margin-right: 7px !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --><\/style>\n<p>[\/et_pb_fullwidth_code][et_pb_fullwidth_code _builder_version=&#8221;3.19.11&#8243;][\/et_pb_fullwidth_code][\/et_pb_section]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>In een eerder bericht besprak ik een van de neteligere problemen waarmee vraagplanners soms worden geconfronteerd: het werken met gegevens over productvraag die worden gekenmerkt door wat statistici scheefheid noemen - een situatie die kostbare voorraadinvesteringen kan vergen. Dit soort problematische gegevens is te vinden in verschillende scenario&#039;s. In ten minste \u00e9\u00e9n geval, de combinatie van intermitterende vraag en zeer effectieve verkoopacties, leent het probleem zich voor een effectieve oplossing.<\/p>","protected":false},"author":122,"featured_media":3219,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_et_pb_use_builder":"on","_et_pb_old_content":"In a previous post, I discussed one of the thornier problems demand planners sometimes face: working with product demand data characterized by what statisticians call skewness\u2014a situation that can necessitate costly inventory investments. This sort of problematic data is found in several different scenarios. In at least one, the combination of intermittent demand and very effective sales promotions, the problem lends itself to an effective solution.<!--more-->\r\n\r\nReviewing terms, recall that \u201cservice level\u201d is the probability of not stocking out while waiting for a replenishment order to arrive, while \u201cfill rate\u201d is the percentage of demand that is satisfied immediately from stock. In my previous post, <a href=\"http:\/\/www.smartforecaster.net\/the-scourge-of-skewness\/\">\u201cThe Scourge of Skewness\u201d<\/a>, I pointed out that a certain type of demand distribution, having a \u201clong right tail\u201d, will lead to fill rates that can be much lower than service levels. I also pointed out that sometimes the only way to improve the fill rate is to increase the target service level to an unusually high level, which can be expensive.\r\n\r\nIn this post, I\u2019ll look at solving the problem in one special case: skewness resulting from effective sales promotions mixed with \u201cintermittent demand\u201d. Intermittent demand has a large proportion of zero values, with nonzero values mixed in at random. Successful sales promotions, obviously positive, have a downside: they can confuse the \u201cdemand signal\u201d with spikes in your demand history, and can undermine forecasts and bias safety stock calculations. When intermittent demand and effective sales promotions are the source of your data\u2019s skewness, methods exist to work around the problem to achieve both higher fill rates and more accurate demand forecasts.\r\n\r\nHow Promotions Increase Skewness\r\n\r\nSuccessful promotions abruptly increase item demand. This creates anomalies, or \u201coutliers\u201d, which contribute to forming a skewed distribution. Knowing when promotions occurred in the past, we can adjust an item\u2019s record of past demand. We produce an alternate demand history as if there had been no promotions, by replacing the outliers with values more representative of the \u201cnatural\u201d level of demand. These adjustments reduce demand skewness. Reduced skewness can lead to significant reductions in both expected forecasts and safety stocks, which add together to form reorder points.\r\n\r\nSuccessful promotions are likely to be repeated. When that happens, the promotion effects can be added in to demand forecasts to increase their accuracy. The effect of future promotions on inventory management will be to increase the risk of stockouts, so a sensible response is to work at the operational level to build up temporary supply, in a quantity keyed to the estimated impact of prior promotions on the effected items.\r\n\r\nUsing Event Modeling to Improve Demand Forecasting\r\n\r\nIt\u2019s possible to model the impact of like events, and apply this to planned events in the future. Doing so can improve your forecast in two big ways: by projecting the demand jolt you expect from a planned event; and rationalizing the spikes in the past that were caused by events, making your baseline activity more visible and more accurately forecastable. We do a lot of this in SmartForecasts, so allow me to use our experience there to show you what I mean.\r\n\r\nEvent Modeling entails the following steps:\r\n\u2022\u00a0Automatically estimating the impact of previous promotions (which is a useful result in itself).\r\n\u2022\u00a0Adjusting historical demand to statistically remove the effect of promotions.\r\n\u2022\u00a0Creating promotion-free forecasts.\r\n\u2022\u00a0Revising the forecasts for any future time periods in which promotions are planned.\r\n\r\nWe call this this type of analysis \u201cPromo forecasting\u201d. We use the word \u201cpromotions\u201d to describe what you do yourself to improve your results. We use \u201cevents\u201d to describe what the world does to you, usually to your detriment; examples include strikes, power outages, warehouse fires and other unlucky happenings.\r\n\r\nTo understand how Event Modeling can help you cope with skewness when doing demand forecasting for high-volume items, consider Figures 1-3.\r\n\r\n[caption id=\"attachment_400\" align=\"aligncenter\" width=\"946\"]<a href=\"http:\/\/www.smartforecaster.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/12\/skewness-promo-1.jpg\"><img class=\"size-full wp-image-400\" src=\"http:\/\/www.smartforecaster.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/12\/skewness-promo-1.jpg\" alt=\"A line graph; sample data shows seasonal demand.\" width=\"946\" height=\"380\" \/><\/a> Figure 1: A seasonal demand pattern. The forecasts are appropriate and have little uncertainty.[\/caption]\r\n\r\nFigure 1 shows that this item\u2019s demand pattern is clearly seasonal, and the forecast is both seasonal and \u201ctight\u201d, meaning that the forecast uncertainty interval (\u201cmargin of error\u201d, shown in cyan lines) is very narrow.\r\n\r\n[caption id=\"attachment_401\" align=\"aligncenter\" width=\"946\"]<a href=\"http:\/\/www.smartforecaster.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/12\/skewness-promo-2.jpg\"><img class=\"size-full wp-image-401\" src=\"http:\/\/www.smartforecaster.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/12\/skewness-promo-2.jpg\" alt=\"A line graph; sample data has huge uncertainty due to promotion-related spike.\" width=\"946\" height=\"375\" \/><\/a> Figure 2: The demand pattern modified by a promotion adding 2,000 units in June 2013. The forecasts are no longer seasonal and have large uncertainty.[\/caption]\r\n\r\nFigure 2 shows an alternative history in which a promotion in June 2014 reversed the usual seasonal low associated with June sales. This demand pattern was forecasted using the Automatic forecasting tournament in SmartForecasts, as in Figure 1. This time, the promotion scrambled the seasonal pattern enough to create an inappropriate non-seasonal forecast, and one that has a much larger margin of error.\r\n\r\n[caption id=\"attachment_402\" align=\"alignnone\" width=\"946\"]<a href=\"http:\/\/www.smartforecaster.net\/managing-inventory-promoted-items\/skewness-promo-3\/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-402\"><img class=\"size-full wp-image-402\" src=\"http:\/\/www.smartforecaster.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/12\/skewness-promo-3.jpg\" alt=\"A line graph; event modeling accounts for the promotional spike.\" width=\"946\" height=\"380\" \/><\/a> Figure 3: The demand from Figure 2 processed by Promo forecasting, including the effect of a planned repeat promotion in June 2015. The forecasts are again appropriately seasonal, have little uncertainty and take account of the planned repeat promotion.[\/caption]\r\n\r\nFinally, Figure 3 shows how Promo forecasting handles the same promoted scenario, retaining a seasonal forecast and building into the forecast an estimate of the effect of a planned repeat promotion in 2015.\r\n\r\nThe Case of Intermittent Demand\r\n\r\nIn Figure 1, the item was a high-volume finished good and the task was demand forecasting. Promo modeling is also useful when dealing with the task of setting safety stocks and reorder points for items with intermittent demand, whether the items are finished goods, components or spare parts. Intermittent demand very often has a skewed distribution that makes it difficult to achieve high item availability with a small investment in inventory.\r\n\r\n[caption id=\"attachment_403\" align=\"aligncenter\" width=\"675\"]<a href=\"http:\/\/www.smartforecaster.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/12\/skewness-promo-4.jpg\"><img class=\"size-full wp-image-403\" src=\"http:\/\/www.smartforecaster.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/12\/skewness-promo-4.jpg\" alt=\"A line graph; mostly zero demand with a few small (and one very large) spikes.\" width=\"675\" height=\"490\" \/><\/a> Figure 4: An example of a promoted item having intermittent demand. The large spike in February 2013 was the result of a promotion.[\/caption]\r\n\r\nFigure 4 illustrates the problem that a successful promotion can accidentally create for inventory management. If such a spike arises from the natural, un-promoted demand, then the only way to maintain high fill rates is to provide safety stocks large enough to cope with these random surges. In this case, the big spike in demand of 500 units in February 2013 was the result of a one-time promotion.\r\n\r\nTaking Account of Promotions to Improve Inventory Management\r\n\r\nUnwittingly treating the spike in the example above as part of the natural demand variability results in a poor fill rate. To achieve a target service level of, say, 95% with a lead time of one month would require a reorder point of 38 units, computed as the sum of an expected forecast over the one month replenishment lead time of 21 units supplemented by a safety stock of 17 units. This investment would result in a disappointing fill rate of only 36%.\r\n\r\nHowever, recognizing that the spike is a one-time promotion and replacing the 500 units with 0 obviously would make a big difference. The reorder point would drop from 38 units to 31 (the sum of an expected demand of 7 units and a safety stock of 24 units) and the fill rate would increase to 94%.\r\n\r\nOf course, it is not ok to just throw out inconvenient demand spikes whenever they make life uncomfortable; there has to be a valid \u201cbusiness story\u201d behind the adjustment of historical demand. If the spike is the result of a data processing error, then by all means, fix it. If the spike coincides with a promotion, then replacing the spike with, say, the median demand (often zero, as in this example) will result in a much more sustainable inventory investment that still meets aggressive performance targets. Future promotions of the same type on the same item will require some extra effort to prepare for the temporary surge in demand, but the recommended reorder point will be correct in the long run.\r\n\r\n<em>Thomas Willemain, PhD, co-founded Smart Software and currently serves as Senior Vice President for Research. Dr. Willemain also serves as Professor Emeritus of Industrial and Systems Engineering at Rensselear Polytechnic Institute and as a member of the research staff at the Center for Computing Sciences, Institute for Defense Analyses.<\/em>","_et_gb_content_width":"","content-type":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[205,30,1],"tags":[27,28,31,75,161,163,162],"class_list":["post-1068","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-blog","category-forecasting","category-uncategorized","tag-demand","tag-demand-planning","tag-forecasting-2","tag-intermittent-demand","tag-inventory-management-problems","tag-promotional-events","tag-skewness"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v25.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Managing the Inventory of Promoted Items - Smart SOFTWARE<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Managing inventory can prove to be quite costly. 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