{"id":10221,"date":"2023-02-27T14:08:16","date_gmt":"2023-02-27T18:08:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/smartcorp.com\/forecasting\/statistical-forecasting-how-automatic-method-selection-works-copy\/"},"modified":"2023-02-27T14:55:02","modified_gmt":"2023-02-27T18:55:02","slug":"wat-te-doen-wanneer-een-statistische-prognose-niet-logisch-is","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/smartcorp.com\/nl\/forecasting\/what-to-do-when-a-statistical-forecast-does-not-make-sense\/","title":{"rendered":"Wat te doen als een statistische prognose geen steek houdt"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>[et_pb_section fb_built=&#8221;1&#8243; _builder_version=&#8221;4.16&#8243; _module_preset=&#8221;default&#8221; custom_margin=&#8221;0px||||false|false&#8221; custom_padding=&#8221;0px||||false|false&#8221; global_colors_info=&#8221;{}&#8221;][et_pb_row admin_label=&#8221;Row&#8221; module_class=&#8221;blog_glob&#8221; _builder_version=&#8221;4.16&#8243; locked=&#8221;off&#8221; global_colors_info=&#8221;{}&#8221;][et_pb_column type=&#8221;4_4&#8243; saved_specialty_column_type=&#8221;2_3&#8243; _builder_version=&#8221;4.16&#8243; custom_padding=&#8221;|||&#8221; global_colors_info=&#8221;{}&#8221; custom_padding__hover=&#8221;|||&#8221;][et_pb_text content_last_edited=&#8221;off|desktop&#8221; admin_label=&#8221;CONTENT&#8221; module_class=&#8221;post-main_text&#8221; _builder_version=&#8221;4.19.4&#8243; header_3_text_color=&#8221;#0c71c3&#8243; header_3_font_size=&#8221;19px&#8221; background_size=&#8221;initial&#8221; background_position=&#8221;top_left&#8221; background_repeat=&#8221;repeat&#8221; z_index_tablet=&#8221;500&#8243; text_text_shadow_horizontal_length_tablet=&#8221;0px&#8221; text_text_shadow_vertical_length_tablet=&#8221;0px&#8221; text_text_shadow_blur_strength_tablet=&#8221;1px&#8221; link_text_shadow_horizontal_length_tablet=&#8221;0px&#8221; link_text_shadow_vertical_length_tablet=&#8221;0px&#8221; link_text_shadow_blur_strength_tablet=&#8221;1px&#8221; ul_text_shadow_horizontal_length_tablet=&#8221;0px&#8221; ul_text_shadow_vertical_length_tablet=&#8221;0px&#8221; ul_text_shadow_blur_strength_tablet=&#8221;1px&#8221; ol_text_shadow_horizontal_length_tablet=&#8221;0px&#8221; ol_text_shadow_vertical_length_tablet=&#8221;0px&#8221; ol_text_shadow_blur_strength_tablet=&#8221;1px&#8221; quote_text_shadow_horizontal_length_tablet=&#8221;0px&#8221; quote_text_shadow_vertical_length_tablet=&#8221;0px&#8221; quote_text_shadow_blur_strength_tablet=&#8221;1px&#8221; header_text_shadow_horizontal_length_tablet=&#8221;0px&#8221; header_text_shadow_vertical_length_tablet=&#8221;0px&#8221; header_text_shadow_blur_strength_tablet=&#8221;1px&#8221; header_2_text_shadow_horizontal_length_tablet=&#8221;0px&#8221; header_2_text_shadow_vertical_length_tablet=&#8221;0px&#8221; header_2_text_shadow_blur_strength_tablet=&#8221;1px&#8221; header_3_text_shadow_horizontal_length_tablet=&#8221;0px&#8221; header_3_text_shadow_vertical_length_tablet=&#8221;0px&#8221; header_3_text_shadow_blur_strength_tablet=&#8221;1px&#8221; header_4_text_shadow_horizontal_length_tablet=&#8221;0px&#8221; header_4_text_shadow_vertical_length_tablet=&#8221;0px&#8221; header_4_text_shadow_blur_strength_tablet=&#8221;1px&#8221; header_5_text_shadow_horizontal_length_tablet=&#8221;0px&#8221; header_5_text_shadow_vertical_length_tablet=&#8221;0px&#8221; header_5_text_shadow_blur_strength_tablet=&#8221;1px&#8221; header_6_text_shadow_horizontal_length_tablet=&#8221;0px&#8221; header_6_text_shadow_vertical_length_tablet=&#8221;0px&#8221; header_6_text_shadow_blur_strength_tablet=&#8221;1px&#8221; box_shadow_horizontal_tablet=&#8221;0px&#8221; box_shadow_vertical_tablet=&#8221;0px&#8221; box_shadow_blur_tablet=&#8221;40px&#8221; box_shadow_spread_tablet=&#8221;0px&#8221; use_border_color=&#8221;off&#8221; global_colors_info=&#8221;{}&#8221;]<\/p>\n<p>Sometimes a statistical forecast just doesn\u2019t make sense.\u00a0 Every forecaster has been there.\u00a0 They may double-check that the data was input correctly or review the model settings but are still left scratching their head over why the forecast looks very unlike the demand history.\u00a0 \u00a0When the occasional forecast doesn\u2019t make sense, it can erode confidence in the entire statistical forecasting process.<\/p>\n<p>This blog will help a layman understand what the Smart statistical models are and how they are chosen automatically.\u00a0 It will address how that choice sometimes fails, how you can know if it did, and what you can do to ensure that the forecasts can always be justified.\u00a0 It\u2019s important to know to expect, and how to catch the exceptions so you can rely on your forecasting system.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h2>How methods are chosen automatically<\/h2>\n<p>The criteria to automatically choose one statistical method out of a set is based on which method came closest to correctly predicting held-out history.\u00a0 Earlier history is passed to each method and the result is compared to actuals to find the one that came closest overall.\u00a0 That automatically chosen method is then fed all the history to produce the forecast. Check out this blog to learn more about the model selection <a href=\"https:\/\/smartcorp.com\/uncategorized\/statistical-forecasting-how-automatic-method-selection-works\/\">https:\/\/smartcorp.com\/uncategorized\/statistical-forecasting-how-automatic-method-selection-works\/<\/a><\/p>\n<p>For most time series, this process can capture trends, seasonality, and average volume accurately. But sometimes a chosen method comes mathematically closest to predicting the held-out history but doesn\u2019t project it forward in a way that makes sense.\u00a0 That means the system selected method isn\u2019t best and for some \u201chard to forecast\u201d<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h2>Hard to forecast items<\/h2>\n<p>Hard to forecast items may have large, unpredictable spikes in demand, or typically no demand but random irregular blips, or unusual recent activity. \u00a0Noise in the data sometimes randomly wanders up or down, and the automated best-pick method might forecast a runaway trend or a grind into zero. \u00a0It will do worse than common sense and in a small percentage of any reasonably varied group of items.\u00a0 So, you will need to identify these cases and respond by overriding the forecast or changing the forecast inputs.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h2>How to find the exceptions<\/h2>\n<p>Best practice is to filter or sort the forecasted items to identify those where the sum of the forecast over the next year is significantly different than the corresponding history last year.\u00a0 The forecast sum may be much lower than the history or vice versa.\u00a0 Use supplied metrics to identify these items; then you can choose to apply overrides to the forecast or modify the forecast settings.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h2>How to fix the exceptions<\/h2>\n<p>Often when the forecast seems odd, an averaging method, like Single Exponential Smoothing or even a simple average using Freestyle, will produce a more reasonable forecast.\u00a0 If trend is possibly valid, you can remove only seasonal methods to avoid a falsely seasonal result.\u00a0 Or do the opposite and use only seasonal methods if seasonality is expected but wasn\u2019t projected in the default forecast.\u00a0 You can use the what-if features to create any number of forecasts, evaluate &amp; compare, and continue to fine tune the settings until you are comfortable with the forecast.<\/p>\n<p>Cleaning the history, with or without changing the automatic method selection, is also effective at producing reasonable forecasts. You can embed forecast parameters to reduce the amount of history used to forecast those items or the number of periods passed into the algorithm so earlier, outdated history is no longer considered.\u00a0 You can edit spikes or drops in the demand history that are known anomalies so they don\u2019t influence the outcome.\u00a0 You can also work with the Smart team to implement automatic outlier detection and removal so that data prior to being forecasted is already cleansed of these anomalies.<\/p>\n<p>If the demand is truly intermittent, it is going to be nearly impossible to forecast \u201caccurately\u201d per period. If a level-loading average is not acceptable, handling the item by setting inventory policy with a lead time forecast can be effective.\u00a0 Alternatively, you may choose to use \u201csame as last year\u201d models which while not prone to accuracy will be generally accepted by the business given the alternatives forecasts.<\/p>\n<p>Finally, if the item was introduced so recently that the algorithms do not have enough input to accurately forecast, a simple average or manual forecast may be best.\u00a0 You can identify new items by filtering on the number of historical periods.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h2>Manual selection of methods<\/h2>\n<p>Once you have identified rows where the forecast doesn\u2019t make sense to the human eye, you can choose a smaller subset of all methods to allow into the forecast run and compare to history. \u00a0Smart will allow you to use a restricted set of methods just for one forecast run or embed the restricted set to use for all forecast runs going forward. Different methods will project the history into the future in different ways.\u00a0 Having a sense of how each works will help you choose which to allow.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h2>Rely on your forecasting tool<\/h2>\n<p>The more you use Smart period over period to embed your decisions about how to forecast and what historical data to consider, the less often you will face exceptions as described in this blog.\u00a0 Entering forecast parameters is a manageable task when starting with critical or high impact items.\u00a0 Even if you don\u2019t embed any manual decisions on forecast methods, the forecast re-runs every period with new data. So, an item with an odd result today can become easily forecastable in time.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/smartcorp.com\/demandplanner\/\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1523 \" src=\"https:\/\/smartcorp.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/08\/demand_bottom.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"837\" height=\"299\" srcset=\"https:\/\/smartcorp.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/08\/demand_bottom.png 837w, https:\/\/smartcorp.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/08\/demand_bottom-480x171.png 480w\" sizes=\"(min-width: 0px) and (max-width: 480px) 480px, (min-width: 481px) 837px, 100vw\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>[\/et_pb_text][\/et_pb_column][\/et_pb_row][\/et_pb_section]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Soms slaat een statistische prognose gewoon nergens op. Elke voorspeller is er geweest. Ze kunnen dubbel controleren of de gegevens correct zijn ingevoerd of de modelinstellingen bekijken, maar ze blijven zich afvragen waarom de prognose er zo anders uitziet dan de vraaggeschiedenis. Wanneer de incidentele voorspelling nergens op slaat, kan dit het vertrouwen in het hele statistische prognoseproces aantasten.  <\/p>","protected":false},"author":14,"featured_media":10223,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_et_pb_use_builder":"on","_et_pb_old_content":"<p>[et_pb_section fb_built=\"1\" admin_label=\"section\" module_class=\"blog_css\" _builder_version=\"3.22\" transparent_background=\"off\" make_fullwidth=\"off\" use_custom_width=\"off\" width_unit=\"on\" global_colors_info=\"{}\"][et_pb_row admin_label=\"row\" _builder_version=\"3.25\" background_size=\"initial\" background_position=\"top_left\" background_repeat=\"repeat\" global_colors_info=\"{}\"][et_pb_column type=\"4_4\" _builder_version=\"3.0.47\" custom_padding=\"|||\" global_colors_info=\"{}\" custom_padding__hover=\"|||\"][et_pb_code admin_label=\"CSS\" _builder_version=\"4.10.7\" global_colors_info=\"{}\"]<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] 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.et_pb_widget, .et_pb_gutters3.et_pb_row .et_pb_column_1_3 .et_pb_shop_grid .woocommerce ul.products li.product, .et_section_specialty .et_pb_row .et_pb_column_2_3 .et_pb_gutters3.et_pb_row_inner .et_pb_column_1_3 .et_pb_grid_item, .et_section_specialty .et_pb_row .et_pb_column_2_3 .et_pb_gutters3.et_pb_row_inner .et_pb_column_1_3 .et_pb_widget, .et_section_specialty .et_pb_row .et_pb_column_2_3 .et_pb_gutters3.et_pb_row_inner .et_pb_column_1_3 .et_pb_shop_grid .woocommerce ul.products li.product{<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> margin-bottom: 0px !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->.blog_css{<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->display:none;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->.et_pb_posts a.more-link{<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->float:right;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->.blog_bar h4{<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->color: #0d4c92 !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> font-size: 23px;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> margin-bottom: 30px;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->font-family: 'Open Sans', sans-serif;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->.blog_bg{<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->padding: 120px 15px;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --><!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->.post-content p{<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> display: inline-block !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> float: right;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> height: 174px;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> display: -webkit-box !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> -webkit-line-clamp: 7;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> -webkit-box-orient: vertical;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> overflow: hidden;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> text-overflow: ellipsis;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->.et_pb_post .entry-featured-image-url{<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> float: left;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> margin-right: 25px;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> display: inline-block !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->position: absolute !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> bottom: 55px;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> .post-meta {<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> display: block !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --><!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->.et_pb_widget ul li {<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> border-bottom: 1px solid #a3a3a3;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> padding-bottom: 5px;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> margin-bottom: 20px;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->.rpwwt-post-title{<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->height: 50px;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> display: -webkit-box;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> -webkit-line-clamp: 2;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> -webkit-box-orient: vertical;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> overflow: hidden;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> text-overflow: ellipsis;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->.rpwwt-post-excerpt{<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> height: 34px;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> display: -webkit-box;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> -webkit-line-clamp: 2;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> -webkit-box-orient: vertical;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> overflow: hidden;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> text-overflow: ellipsis;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> margin-bottom: 20px;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> color: #707070;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> font-size: 12px;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> line-height: 16px;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->.rpwwt-widget ul li a{<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> color: #0d4c92 !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> font-size: 14px;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> font-weight: 600;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> margin-bottom: 3px;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->#categories-2 .cat-item a{<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> text-decoration: none;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> font-size: 16px;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> line-height: 32px;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> color: #3c3c3c !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --><!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->.blog_glob article{<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->box-shadow: 0px 0px 5px silver;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> margin-bottom: 44px;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --><!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->position: relative;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->.blog_glob article h2 a{<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->font-size: 26px;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> color: #0d4c92 !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> font-weight: 600;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> margin-bottom: 8px;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->font-family: 'Open Sans', sans-serif;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->.blog_top_title {<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->font-size: 38px;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> color: #ffffff;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> text-transform: uppercase;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> font-weight: 600;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> font-family: 'Open Sans', sans-serif;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> margin-bottom: 4px;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->.blog_top_text{<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> font-size: 20px;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> color: #ffffff;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> text-transform: uppercase;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> font-weight: 600;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> font-family: 'Open Sans', sans-serif;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->.blog_glob img{<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> width: 195px;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> height: 183px;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->.et_pb_posts a.more-link{<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->text-decoration: none;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> background: #14954a;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> color: #ffffff;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> padding: 11px 15px;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> font-size: 16px;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> width: auto;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> display: inline-block !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->.post-meta{<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> color: #a3a3a3 !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> font-size: 13px !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> border-bottom: 1px solid #a3a3a3 !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> padding-bottom: 10px !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> margin-bottom: 19px !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> }<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> .post-content p{<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> margin-bottom: 12px !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> padding-bottom: 18px !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> color: #707070 !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> font-size: 16px !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> line-height: 24px !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> border-bottom: 1px solid #a3a3a3 !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> }<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->.post-meta .author.vcard a{<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> font-style: italic !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> color: #a3a3a3 !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> font-size: 13px !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> }<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->@media (max-width: 1150px){<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->.post-content {<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> width: 60%;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->@media (max-width: 1060px){<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->.post-content {<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> width: 55%;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->@media (max-width: 980px){<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --><!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->.blog_glob{<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->width: auto;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> float: left;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> display: inline-block;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->.blog_glob article{<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->width:auto;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> padding: 45px 20px 10px 20px;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->.bloggg>div{<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->margin: auto;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> width: 80%;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->.et_pb_column .et_pb_blog_grid .column.size-1of2, .et_pb_column .et_pb_widget:nth-child(n) {<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> width: 100% !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> margin: 0 7.5% 7.5% 0 !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->.blog_col {<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> width: 56% !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> display: inline-block;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> float: left;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->.sitebar_col{<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> width: 230px !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> display: inline-block;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> float: right;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --><!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->@media (max-width: 930px){<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --><!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->.bloggg>div{<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> width: 85%;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->@media (max-width: 870px){<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --><!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->.bloggg>div{<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> width: 90%;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->@media (max-width: 830px){<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --><!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->.bloggg>div{<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> width: 97%;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->@media (max-width: 767px){<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->.sitebar_col {<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->display:none;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->.blog_col {<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> width: 100% !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> display: block;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> float: none;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->.blog_glob {<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> width: 100%;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> float: none;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> display: block;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->.blog_glob article {<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> width: 100%;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> padding: 45px 20px 10px 20px;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->.ghj {<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->width: 280px;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> margin: auto;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->padding-bottom:20px;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->.et_pb_post .entry-featured-image-url {<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> float: none !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> margin-right: 0 !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> display: block !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> position: relative !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> bottom: 0 !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> text-align: center !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->.post-content {<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> display: none !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --><!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->.blog_top_title {<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> line-height: 38px;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> font-size: 34px;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->.blog_glob article h2 a {<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> line-height: 28px;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->.blog_bg {<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> padding: 50px 15px;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --><!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --><!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --><!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --><!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --><!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --><!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --><!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->[\/et_pb_code][et_pb_code admin_label=\"A POST CSS\" _builder_version=\"4.10.7\" global_colors_info=\"{}\"]<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --><!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->@media (max-width: 1320px){<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->.blog_glob .relposts article img {<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> width: 160px !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> height: 160px !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->.relposts article {<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> width: 180px !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->@media (max-width: 1160px){<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->.relposts article:nth-child(2) {<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> display:none !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->.blog_glob .relposts article .entry-title{<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> height: 85px !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->.relposts{<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> margin: auto;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> float: none;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> width: 390px;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --><!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->.relposts:after {<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> content: '';<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> display: block;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> clear: both;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->.blog_glob .relposts article h2 a{<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> font-size: 13.08px !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> color: #0d4c92;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --><!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> }<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->.relposts article {<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> margin-bottom: 25px !important ;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->.blog_glob .relposts article .entry-title{<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->margin-top:2px;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> line-height: 0.7em !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> height: 70px ;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->.relposts article{<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> width: 212px ;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> display: inline-block !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> float: left !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->.relposts article:nth-child(1) {<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> margin-right: 25px ;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->.relposts article:nth-child(2) {<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> margin-right: 25px;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->.blog_glob .relposts article{<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->display: inline-block;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> padding: 10px 10px 30px 10px !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> box-shadow: 0px 0px 5px silver !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->.blog_glob article{<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> padding: 10px 10px 30px 10px !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> box-shadow: 0px 0px 5px silver !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->.relposts .et_pb_post .entry-featured-image-url {<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> float: none !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> margin-right: 0 !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> display: block !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> position: relative !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> bottom: 0 !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->.post-content{<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->display:none;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->.relposts_title{<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> text-align: center;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> font-size: 26px;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> color: #0d4c92;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> font-weight: 600;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> margin-bottom: 15px;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> margin-top: 70px;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->.widget_categories_jj{<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> margin-top: 60px;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> margin-bottom: 60px;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->.widget_categories_jj ul li a {<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> text-decoration: none;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> font-size: 16px;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> line-height: 32px;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> color: #3c3c3c;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->.widget_categories_jj ul {<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> padding: 0 !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> margin-top: 0;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> list-style-type: none;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --><!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->.categ_title {<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> font-family: 'Open Sans', sans-serif !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> color: #0d4c92;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> font-size: 26px;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> padding-bottom: 30px;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> border-bottom: 1px solid #a3a3a3;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->.widget_categories_jj ul li{<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->text-decoration: none;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> font-size: 16px;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> line-height: 32px;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> color: #3c3c3c;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->.widget_categories_jj ul li {<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> list-style-type: none;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> border-bottom: 1px solid #a3a3a3;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> padding: 10px 0;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->.share_blog{<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->margin:5px !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->div.wp_rp_content {<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> display: none !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->.post-soc-icon img{<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> width: inherit !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> height: inherit !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> .post_soc {<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> position: absolute;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> margin-left: -55px;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->.bloggg{<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> position: relative;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> .post-soc-icon a img {<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> display: block;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> margin-bottom: 7px;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->.post-soc-icon a {<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> text-decoration: none;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->.post-main_text ul li:before {<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> content: '';<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> display: inline-block;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> width: 7px;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> height: 7px;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> background: #00964d;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> border-radius: 50%;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> margin-bottom: 2px;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> margin-right: 8px;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->.post-main_text ul li {<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> list-style-type: none;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> line-height: 30px;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->.post-main_text {<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->text-align: justify; <!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> color: #404040;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> font-size: 16px !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->.post-main_text a{<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->color: #0d4c92;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> font-style: italic;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->.post-main_text span{<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> font-style: italic;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->.post-main_text strong{<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> font-family: 'Open Sans', sans-serif !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> color: #0d4c92;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> font-weight: 400;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> font-size: 20px;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --><!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->.et_post_meta_wrapper .entry-title{<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> font-size: 26px;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> color: #0d4c92;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> font-weight: 600;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> margin-bottom: 8px;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> text-decoration: none;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> font-family: 'Open Sans', sans-serif !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->.single.et_pb_pagebuilder_layout.et_full_width_page .et_post_meta_wrapper {<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> width: 100% !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->.post-meta>a, .comments-number{<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->display:none !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->.single.et_pb_pagebuilder_layout.et_full_width_page .et_post_meta_wrapper {<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> padding-top: 0 !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->.blog_bg{<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->padding: 120px 15px;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->#left-area {<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> padding-bottom: 0 !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->.single .et_pb_post{<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> padding-bottom: 0 !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->.single .et_pb_post{<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> margin-bottom: 0 !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->@media (max-width: 767px){<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->.subscribe_bg{<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> margin-bottom: 60px;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->.ghj {<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> margin-bottom: -60px !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->.ghj{<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->margin-top:40px;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->.et_post_meta_wrapper img {<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> width: auto !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> height: auto !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> float: left;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> margin-right: 20px;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> max-width: 100% !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->#categories-bbb{<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> padding-top: 10px;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> margin-top: 0;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> margin-bottom: 10px;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> border-bottom: 2px solid #0d4c92;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> border-top: 2px solid #0d4c92;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> text-align: center;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->.categ_title{<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->font-weight: bold;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->color: #0d4c92;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> font-size: 26px;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> padding-bottom: 30px;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> border-bottom: none;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> padding-bottom: 10px;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->.categ_title:after {<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> content: 'f0dd ';<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> color: #0d4c92;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> font-family: fontawesome;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> margin-left: 5px;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->#categories-bbb ul{<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> display: none;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->#categories-bbb ul.baccc {<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> display: block !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->@media (max-width: 850px){<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->.et_post_meta_wrapper img {<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> width: auto !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> height: auto !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> float: none !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> text-align: center !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> margin: auto !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> max-width: 100% !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->.sitebar_col {<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> width: 190px !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --><!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --><!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --><!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --><!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --><!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --><!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --><!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->[\/et_pb_code][et_pb_code global_colors_info=\"{}\"]<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->jQuery(document).ready(function($) {<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> \/\/ Stuff to do as soon as the DOM is ready. Use $() w\/o colliding with other libs<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --><!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --><!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> $(window).scroll(function() {<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->if ($(window).scrollTop() >= 400 ) {<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> $(\"#tabb\").css(\"position\",\"fixed\");<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> $(\"#tabb\").css(\"top\",\"170px\");<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->if ($(window).scrollTop() < 400 ) {<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> $(\"#tabb\").css(\"position\",\"absolute\");<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> $(\"#tabb\").css(\"top\",\"55px\"); <!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->if ($(window).width() < 767 ) {<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> $(\"#tabb\").css(\"position\",\"relative\");<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> $(\"#tabb\").css(\"top\",\"0px\");<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> }); <!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --><!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->});<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->[\/et_pb_code][et_pb_code admin_label=\"Comment CSS\" global_colors_info=\"{}\"]<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->#comment-wrap {<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> padding-top: 20px;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->.com_title{<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> color: #00964d;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> font-size: 20px;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> font-weight: 600;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> margin-bottom: 36px;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> padding-top: 40px;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->.comment_sect {<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> position: relative;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->.comment_area p{<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> font-size: 18px;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> font-style: italic;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->.reply-container,#comments,.comment-reply-title{<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->display:none;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->.blog_glob article {<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> box-shadow: none !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> margin-bottom: 0 !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> padding: 20px 34px 10px 5px;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->.comment_area{<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> width: 90%;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> float: right;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> display: inline-block;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->.comment_postinfo {<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> display: none;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->img.avatar.avatar-80.photo {<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> width: 50px;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> height: 50px;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> border-radius: 50%;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->.form-submit{<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> position: absolute;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> right: 25px;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> bottom: 30px;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->.et_pb_module .et_pb_button:hover, .et_pb_button:hover {<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> padding: 0 !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->.form-submit input:hover{<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> width: 44px;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> height: 46px;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> border-radius: 50%;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> opacity: 0;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->.form-submit input{<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> width: 44px;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> height: 46px;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> border-radius: 50%;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> opacity: 0;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->.form-submit:before {<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> content: '';<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> display: inline-block;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> width: 46px;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> height: 46px;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> background-image: url(https:\/\/smartcorp.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/05\/comment.png);<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> background-repeat: no-repeat;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> position: absolute;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> z-index: 0;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->.comment-form-author input{<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> width: 270px !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> margin-right: 36px !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> border-left: none !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> border-right: none !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> border-top: none !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> border-color: #d6d6d6 !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> height: 44px !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> border-width: 1px !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> margin-right: 20px !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> background: transparent !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> border-bottom: 1px solid #ccc !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> font-family: 'Open Sans', sans-serif !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->.comment-form-email input{<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> width: 270px !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> border-left: none !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> border-right: none !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> border-top: none !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> border-color: #d6d6d6 !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> height: 44px !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> border-width: 1px !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> margin-right: 5px !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> background: transparent !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> border-bottom: 1px solid #ccc !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> font-family: 'Open Sans', sans-serif !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->.comment-form-comment textarea{<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> display: block;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> width: 560px !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> margin-top: 55px;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> border-left: none !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> border-right: none !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> border-top: none !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> height: 70px;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> border-color: #d6d6d6 !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> font-family: 'Open Sans', sans-serif;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> background: transparent !important; <!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> border-bottom: 1px solid #ccc !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->.comment-notes{<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->display:none;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->.comment_sect{<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> padding: 40px;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> margin-top: 50px;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> border: 1px solid #707070;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->#commentform{<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> position: relative;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->display:flex;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->display: -webkit-flex;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->flex-direction: row;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> flex-wrap: wrap;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->p.comment-notes {-webkit-order: 1;}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->p.comment-form-comment {-webkit-order: 4;}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->p.comment-form-author {-webkit-order: 2;}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->p.comment-form-email {-webkit-order: 3;}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->p.form-submit {-webkit-order: 5;}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --><!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --><!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->\/* Standard syntax *\/<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->p.comment-notes {order: 1;}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->p.comment-form-comment {order: 4;}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->p.comment-form-author {order: 2;}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->p.comment-form-email {order: 3;}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->p.form-submit {-webkit-order: 5;}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --><!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --><!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --><!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->@media (max-width: 1267px){<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->.comment-form-comment textarea{<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> width: 500px !important;<!-- 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80%;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> }<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->@media (max-width: 1150px){<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->.comment-form-comment textarea{<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> width: 100%!important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->.comment-form-email input{<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> width: 210px !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->.comment-form-author input{<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> width: 210px!important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->@media (max-width: 1040px){<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->.comment-form-comment textarea{<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> width: 100%!important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->.comment-form-email input{<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> width: 190px !important;<!-- 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[et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->[\/et_pb_code][et_pb_code global_colors_info=\"{}\"]<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->jQuery(document).ready(function($) {<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> \/\/ Stuff to do as soon as the DOM is ready. Use $() w\/o colliding with other libs<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --><!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->$(window).on('load', function(){<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --><!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> if ($(window).width() < 2000 ) {<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> $(\".commentlist\").prepend($(\".comment-respond\"))<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> }<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --><!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->if ($(window).width() < 2000 ) {<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> $(\".comment_sect\").prepend($(\".com-title\"))<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> }<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> <!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}); <!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --><!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->});<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --><!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->[\/et_pb_code][et_pb_code global_colors_info=\"{}\"]<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->jQuery(document).ready(function($) {<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> \/\/ Stuff to do as soon as the DOM is ready. Use $() w\/o colliding with other libs<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --><!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->$(document).ready(function (){<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> $(\".categ_title\").click(function(){<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> $(\"#categories-bbb ul\").toggleClass(\"baccc\");<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> }) <!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}); <!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --><!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --><!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --><!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->});<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --><!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->[\/et_pb_code][\/et_pb_column][\/et_pb_row][\/et_pb_section][et_pb_section fb_built=\"1\" _builder_version=\"4.10.5\" _module_preset=\"default\" custom_margin=\"0px||||false|false\" custom_padding=\"0px||||false|false\" global_colors_info=\"{}\"][et_pb_row admin_label=\"Row\" module_class=\"blog_glob\" _builder_version=\"3.25\" locked=\"off\" global_colors_info=\"{}\"][et_pb_column type=\"4_4\" saved_specialty_column_type=\"2_3\" _builder_version=\"3.0.47\" custom_padding=\"|||\" global_colors_info=\"{}\" custom_padding__hover=\"|||\"][et_pb_code module_class=\"append_categ\" global_colors_info=\"{}\"]<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->jQuery(document).ready(function($) {<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> \/\/ Stuff to do as soon as the DOM is ready. Use $() w\/o colliding with other libs<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --><!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->$(window).on('load', function(){<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> if ($(window).width() < 767 ) {<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> $(\".append_categ\").append($(\"#categories-bbb\"))<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> }<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}); <!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --><!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->});<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --><!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->[\/et_pb_code][et_pb_text content_last_edited=\"off|desktop\" admin_label=\"CONTENT\" module_class=\"post-main_text\" _builder_version=\"4.14.4\" header_3_text_color=\"#0c71c3\" header_3_font_size=\"19px\" background_size=\"initial\" background_position=\"top_left\" background_repeat=\"repeat\" z_index_tablet=\"500\" text_text_shadow_horizontal_length_tablet=\"0px\" text_text_shadow_vertical_length_tablet=\"0px\" text_text_shadow_blur_strength_tablet=\"1px\" link_text_shadow_horizontal_length_tablet=\"0px\" link_text_shadow_vertical_length_tablet=\"0px\" link_text_shadow_blur_strength_tablet=\"1px\" ul_text_shadow_horizontal_length_tablet=\"0px\" ul_text_shadow_vertical_length_tablet=\"0px\" ul_text_shadow_blur_strength_tablet=\"1px\" ol_text_shadow_horizontal_length_tablet=\"0px\" ol_text_shadow_vertical_length_tablet=\"0px\" ol_text_shadow_blur_strength_tablet=\"1px\" quote_text_shadow_horizontal_length_tablet=\"0px\" quote_text_shadow_vertical_length_tablet=\"0px\" quote_text_shadow_blur_strength_tablet=\"1px\" header_text_shadow_horizontal_length_tablet=\"0px\" header_text_shadow_vertical_length_tablet=\"0px\" header_text_shadow_blur_strength_tablet=\"1px\" header_2_text_shadow_horizontal_length_tablet=\"0px\" header_2_text_shadow_vertical_length_tablet=\"0px\" header_2_text_shadow_blur_strength_tablet=\"1px\" header_3_text_shadow_horizontal_length_tablet=\"0px\" header_3_text_shadow_vertical_length_tablet=\"0px\" header_3_text_shadow_blur_strength_tablet=\"1px\" header_4_text_shadow_horizontal_length_tablet=\"0px\" header_4_text_shadow_vertical_length_tablet=\"0px\" header_4_text_shadow_blur_strength_tablet=\"1px\" header_5_text_shadow_horizontal_length_tablet=\"0px\" header_5_text_shadow_vertical_length_tablet=\"0px\" header_5_text_shadow_blur_strength_tablet=\"1px\" header_6_text_shadow_horizontal_length_tablet=\"0px\" header_6_text_shadow_vertical_length_tablet=\"0px\" header_6_text_shadow_blur_strength_tablet=\"1px\" box_shadow_horizontal_tablet=\"0px\" box_shadow_vertical_tablet=\"0px\" box_shadow_blur_tablet=\"40px\" box_shadow_spread_tablet=\"0px\" use_border_color=\"off\" global_colors_info=\"{}\"]<\/p><p>Recently, I had an interesting conversation with an inventory manager and the VP Finance. We were discussing the benefits of being able to automatically optimize both reorder points and order quantities. The VP Finance was concerned that given their large supplier required minimum order quantities, they would not be able to benefit.\u00a0 He said his suppliers held all the power, forcing him to accept massive minimum order quantities and tying his hands. While he felt bad about this, he saw a silver lining: He didn\u2019t have to do any planning. He would accept a large inventory investment, but his customer service levels would the exceptional.\u00a0 Perhaps the large inventory investment was assumed to be the cost of doing business.<\/p><p>I pushed back and pointed out that he was not as powerless as he felt. He still had control of the other half of the procurement process: while he couldn\u2019t control how much to order, he could control when to order by adjusting the reorder point. In other words, there is always room for careful quantitative analysis in inventory management, even when you have one hand tied behind your back.<\/p><p><strong>An Example<\/strong><\/p><p>To put some numbers behind my argument, I created a scenario then analyzed it using our methodology to show how consequential it can be to use inventory optimization software even in constrained situations. In this scenario, item demand averages 2.2 units per day but varies significantly by day of week. Let\u2019s say the imaginary supplier insists on a minimum order quantity of 500 units (way out of proportion to demand) and fills replenishment orders in either three days or ten days in equal proportions (quite inconsistent). To spread the blame around, let\u2019s also suppose that the imaginary supplier\u2019s imaginary customer uses a foolish rule that the reorder point should be 10% of the minimum order quantity. (Why this rule? Too many companies use simple\/simplistic rules of thumb in lieu of proper analysis.)<\/p><p>So, we have a base case in which the order quantity is 500 units, and the reorder point is 50 units. In this case, the fill rate is 100%, but the average number of units on hand is a whopping 330. If the customer would simply lower the reorder point from 50 to 15, the fill rate would still be 99.5%, but the average stock on hand would drop by 11% to 295 units. Using the one hand not tied behind his back, the inventory manager could cut his inventory investment by more than 10%, which would be a noticeable win.<\/p><p>Incidentally, if the minimum order quantity were abolished, the customer would be free to arrive at a new and much better solution. Setting the order quantity to 45 and the reorder point to 25 would achieve a 99% fill rate at the cost of a daily on-hand level of only 35 units: nearly a 90% reduction in inventory investment: a major improvement over the status quo.<\/p><p><strong>Postscript<\/strong><\/p><p>These calculations are possible using our software, which can make visible the otherwise unknown relationships between inventory system design choices (e.g., order quantity and reorder point) and key performance indicators (e.g., average units on hand and fill rate).\u00a0 Armed with this ability to conduct these calculations, alternative arrangements with the supplier may now be considered. For example, what if, in exchange for paying a higher price per unit, the supplier agreed to a lower MOQ. Using the software to conduct an analysis of the key performance indicators using the \u201cwhat if\u201d costs and MOQs would reveal the cost per unit and MOQ that would be needed to develop a more profitable deal.\u00a0\u00a0 Once identified, all parties stand to benefit.\u00a0 The supplier now generates a better margin on sales of its products, and the buyer holds considerably less inventory yielding a holding cost reduction that dwarfs the added cost per unit.\u00a0 Everyone wins.<\/p><p>\u00a0<\/p><p>\u00a0<\/p><p><a href=\"https:\/\/smartcorp.com\/inventory-optimization\/\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-1527\" src=\"https:\/\/smartcorp.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/04\/optim_bottom.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"700\" height=\"250\" \/><\/a><\/p><p>[\/et_pb_text][et_pb_code module_class=\"comment_sect\" _builder_version=\"4.10.7\" global_colors_info=\"{}\"]<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->jQuery(document).ready(function($) {<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> \/\/ Stuff to do as soon as the DOM is ready. Use $() w\/o colliding with other libs<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --><!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->$(window).on('load', function(){<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> if ($(window).width() < 2000 ) {<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> $(\".comment_sect\").append($(\"#comment-wrap\"))<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> }<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> if ($(window).width() < 2000) {<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> $(\"#et-main-area\").prepend($(\".blog_bg \"))<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> }<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --><!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> if ($(window).width() < 2000 ) {<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> $(\".post-main_text\").prepend($(\".et_post_meta_wrapper\"))<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> }<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> <!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}); <!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --><!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->});<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --><!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->[\/et_pb_code][et_pb_code admin_label=\"Comment \" module_class=\"com-title\" global_colors_info=\"{}\"]<\/p><div class=\"com_title\">Leave a Comment<\/div><p>[\/et_pb_code][et_pb_code module_class=\"append_subs\" global_colors_info=\"{}\"]<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->jQuery(document).ready(function($) {<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> \/\/ Stuff to do as soon as the DOM is ready. Use $() w\/o colliding with other libs<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --><!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->$(window).on('load', function(){<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> if ($(window).width() < 767 ) {<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> $(\".append_subs\").append($(\".ghj\"))<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> }<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}); <!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --><!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->});<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --><!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->[\/et_pb_code][et_pb_code module_class=\"append_share\" global_colors_info=\"{}\"]<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->jQuery(document).ready(function($) {<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> \/\/ Stuff to do as soon as the DOM is ready. Use $() w\/o colliding with other libs<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --><!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->$(window).on('load', function(){<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> if ($(window).width() < 768 ) {<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> $(\".append_share\").append($(\".post_soc\"))<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> }<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}); <!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --><!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->});<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --><!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->[\/et_pb_code][et_pb_text disabled_on=\"on||\" module_class=\"relposts_title\" _builder_version=\"3.27.4\" background_size=\"initial\" background_position=\"top_left\" background_repeat=\"repeat\" text_orientation=\"center\" module_alignment=\"center\" use_border_color=\"off\" border_color=\"#ffffff\" border_style=\"solid\" global_colors_info=\"{}\"]Related Posts<br \/>[\/et_pb_text][et_pb_blog_2 posts_number=\"3\" include_categories=\"47,174,1\" include_related_categories=\"on\" 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