{"id":9213,"date":"2022-12-12T11:15:02","date_gmt":"2022-12-12T15:15:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/smartcorp.com\/forecasting\/top-five-tips-for-new-demand-planners-and-forecasters-copy\/"},"modified":"2022-12-15T17:36:05","modified_gmt":"2022-12-15T21:36:05","slug":"los-cinco-mejores-consejos-para-crear-pronosticos-precisos","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/smartcorp.com\/es\/pronostico\/los-cinco-mejores-consejos-para-crear-pronosticos-precisos\/","title":{"rendered":"5 consejos para crear pron\u00f3sticos inteligentes"},"content":{"rendered":"

[et_pb_section fb_built=”1″ _builder_version=”4.16″ _module_preset=”default” custom_margin=”0px||||false|false” custom_padding=”0px||||false|false” global_colors_info=”{}”][et_pb_row admin_label=”Row” module_class=”blog_glob” _builder_version=”4.16″ locked=”off” global_colors_info=”{}”][et_pb_column type=”4_4″ saved_specialty_column_type=”2_3″ _builder_version=”4.16″ custom_padding=”|||” global_colors_info=”{}” custom_padding__hover=”|||”][et_pb_text content_last_edited=”off|desktop” admin_label=”CONTENT” module_class=”post-main_text” _builder_version=”4.19.2″ header_3_text_color=”#0c71c3″ header_3_font_size=”19px” background_size=”initial” background_position=”top_left” background_repeat=”repeat” z_index_tablet=”500″ text_text_shadow_horizontal_length_tablet=”0px” text_text_shadow_vertical_length_tablet=”0px” text_text_shadow_blur_strength_tablet=”1px” link_text_shadow_horizontal_length_tablet=”0px” link_text_shadow_vertical_length_tablet=”0px” link_text_shadow_blur_strength_tablet=”1px” ul_text_shadow_horizontal_length_tablet=”0px” ul_text_shadow_vertical_length_tablet=”0px” ul_text_shadow_blur_strength_tablet=”1px” ol_text_shadow_horizontal_length_tablet=”0px” ol_text_shadow_vertical_length_tablet=”0px” ol_text_shadow_blur_strength_tablet=”1px” quote_text_shadow_horizontal_length_tablet=”0px” quote_text_shadow_vertical_length_tablet=”0px” quote_text_shadow_blur_strength_tablet=”1px” header_text_shadow_horizontal_length_tablet=”0px” header_text_shadow_vertical_length_tablet=”0px” header_text_shadow_blur_strength_tablet=”1px” header_2_text_shadow_horizontal_length_tablet=”0px” header_2_text_shadow_vertical_length_tablet=”0px” header_2_text_shadow_blur_strength_tablet=”1px” header_3_text_shadow_horizontal_length_tablet=”0px” header_3_text_shadow_vertical_length_tablet=”0px” header_3_text_shadow_blur_strength_tablet=”1px” header_4_text_shadow_horizontal_length_tablet=”0px” header_4_text_shadow_vertical_length_tablet=”0px” header_4_text_shadow_blur_strength_tablet=”1px” header_5_text_shadow_horizontal_length_tablet=”0px” header_5_text_shadow_vertical_length_tablet=”0px” header_5_text_shadow_blur_strength_tablet=”1px” header_6_text_shadow_horizontal_length_tablet=”0px” header_6_text_shadow_vertical_length_tablet=”0px” header_6_text_shadow_blur_strength_tablet=”1px” box_shadow_horizontal_tablet=”0px” box_shadow_vertical_tablet=”0px” box_shadow_blur_tablet=”40px” box_shadow_spread_tablet=”0px” use_border_color=”off” global_colors_info=”{}”]<\/p>\n

En los m\u00e1s de cuarenta a\u00f1os que Smart sirve software de predicci\u00f3n, en este tiempo hemos conocido a muchas personas que se han convertido en pronosticadores de demanda. Este blog est\u00e1 dirigido principalmente a aquellas personas afortunadas que est\u00e1n a punto de comenzar esta aventura (aunque los profesionales experimentados pueden disfrutar de la actualizaci\u00f3n).<\/p>\n

\u00a1Bienvenido al sector! Una buena previsi\u00f3n puede marcar una gran diferencia en el rendimiento de su empresa, ya sea que est\u00e9 pronosticando para respaldar las ventas, el marketing, la producci\u00f3n, el inventario o las finanzas.<\/p>\n

Hay muchas matem\u00e1ticas y estad\u00edsticas subyacentes a la demanda y a los m\u00e9todos de pron\u00f3stico<\/a>, por lo que su tarea sugiere que usted no es una de esas personas con fobia a las matem\u00e1ticas que prefieren ser poetas. Afortunadamente, si te sientes un poco inestable y a\u00fan no te has curado de la clase de geometr\u00eda de la escuela secundaria, tranquilidad, ya que gran parte de las matem\u00e1ticas est\u00e1n integradas en el software de pron\u00f3stico, por lo que tu primer trabajo obtiener una visi\u00f3n general y dejar las matem\u00e1ticas para m\u00e1s tarde. De hecho, aunque sean una perspectyiva m\u00e1s generica, aislemos algunas de las ideas que m\u00e1s aportar\u00e1n al \u00e9xito.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

    \n
  1. La previsi\u00f3n de la demanda es un deporte de equipo.<\/strong> Incluso en una empresa peque\u00f1a, el planificador de la demanda es parte de un equipo, con algunas personas que aportan los datos, otras que aportan la tecnolog\u00eda y otras que aportan el juicio comercial. En una empresa bien administrada, su trabajo nunca ser\u00e1 simplemente ingresar algunos datos en un programa y enviar un informe de pron\u00f3stico. Muchas empresas han adoptado un proceso llamado Planificaci\u00f3n de ventas y operaciones (S&OP, por sus siglas en ingl\u00e9s) en el que su pron\u00f3stico se utilizar\u00e1 para iniciar una reuni\u00f3n para tomar ciertas decisiones (por ejemplo, \u00bfdebemos asumir que esta tendencia continuar\u00e1? \u00bfSer\u00e1 peor pronosticar por debajo o \u00bfsobrepron\u00f3stico?) y combinar informaci\u00f3n adicional en el pron\u00f3stico final (p. ej., informaci\u00f3n del equipo de ventas, inteligencia empresarial sobre los movimientos de los competidores, promociones). La implicaci\u00f3n para usted es que sus habilidades para escuchar y comunicarse ser\u00e1n importantes para su \u00e9xito.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

     <\/p>\n

      \n
    1. Los motores de pron\u00f3stico estad\u00edstico necesitan buen combustible. <\/strong>Los datos hist\u00f3ricos son el combustible utilizado por los programas de previsi\u00f3n estad\u00edstica, por lo que los datos incorrectos, faltantes o retrasados pueden degradar el producto final. Su trabajo incluir\u00e1 impl\u00edcitamente un aspecto de control de calidad, y debe estar atento a los datos que se le proporcionan. Es una buena idea que en el camino la gente de inform\u00e1tica se haga tu amiga.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

       <\/p>\n

        \n
      1. Su nombre aparecer\u00e1 en los pron\u00f3sticos.<\/strong> Nos guste o no, si env\u00edo pron\u00f3sticos a la cadena de mando, se etiquetan como \"pron\u00f3sticos de Tom\". Debo estar preparado para poseer esos n\u00fameros. Para ganar mi asiento en la mesa, debo ser capaz de explicar en qu\u00e9 datos se basaron mis pron\u00f3sticos, c\u00f3mo se calcularon, por qu\u00e9 us\u00e9 el M\u00e9todo A en lugar del M\u00e9todo B para hacer los c\u00e1lculos y, especialmente, qu\u00e9 tan firmes o blandos son. Aqu\u00ed la honestidad es importante. No se puede esperar razonablemente que ning\u00fan pron\u00f3stico sea perfectamente preciso, pero no se puede esperar que todos los gerentes sean perfectamente razonables. Si no tiene suerte, Direcci\u00f3n pensar\u00e1 que sus informes de incertidumbre del pron\u00f3stico<\/a> sugieren ignorancia o incompetencia. Cuando en realidad, indican profesionalismo. No tengo consejos \u00fatiles sobre la mejor manera de administrar a tales gerentes, pero puedo advertirle sobre ellos. Depende de usted educar a aquellos que usan sus pron\u00f3sticos. Los mejores gerentes lo apreciar\u00e1n.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

         <\/p>\n

          \n
        1. Deje sus hojas de c\u00e1lculo de lado.<\/strong> No es raro que alguien sea ascendido a pronosticador porque era excelente con Excel. A menos que est\u00e9 en una empresa inusualmente peque\u00f1a, la escala de los pron\u00f3sticos corporativos modernos supera lo que puede manejar con las hojas de c\u00e1lculo. La creciente velocidad de los negocios agrava el problema: el ritmo somnoliento de las reuniones de planificaci\u00f3n anuales y trimestrales est\u00e1 dando paso r\u00e1pidamente a re-pron\u00f3sticos semanales o incluso diarios a medida que cambian las condiciones. Por lo tanto, prep\u00e1rese para apoyarse en un proveedor profesional de software de pron\u00f3stico estad\u00edstico y planificaci\u00f3n de la demanda moderno y escalable basado en la nube para capacitaci\u00f3n y soporte.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

           <\/p>\n

            \n
          1. Piensa visualmente.<\/strong> Ser\u00e1 muy \u00fatil, tanto para decidir c\u00f3mo generar pron\u00f3sticos de demanda como para presentarlos a la Direcci\u00f3n, as\u00ed que aproveche las capacidades de visualizaci\u00f3n integradas en el software de pron\u00f3stico. Como se\u00f1al\u00e9 anteriormente, en el mundo empresarial actual, los datos con los que trabaja pueden cambiar r\u00e1pidamente, y lo que hizo el mes pasado puede no ser lo correcto para este mes. Literalmente, vigile sus datos haciendo gr\u00e1ficos simples, como \"gr\u00e1ficos de tiempo\" que muestran cosas como la tendencia o la estacionalidad o (especialmente) los cambios en la tendencia o la estacionalidad o las anomal\u00edas que deben tratarse. Del mismo modo, complementar las tablas de pron\u00f3sticos con gr\u00e1ficos que comparen los pron\u00f3sticos actuales con los pron\u00f3sticos anteriores puede ser muy \u00fatil en un proceso de S&OP. Por ejemplo, los gr\u00e1ficos de tiempo que muestran valores pasados, valores pronosticados e \"intervalos de pron\u00f3stico\" que indican la incertidumbre objetiva en los pron\u00f3sticos brindan una base s\u00f3lida para que su equipo aprecie completamente el mensaje en sus pron\u00f3sticos.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

             <\/p>\n

            Con estas recomendaciones es suficiente por ahora. Como una persona que ha ense\u00f1ado en universidades durante medio siglo, me inclino a comenzar con el lado estad\u00edstico de los pron\u00f3sticos, pero lo dejar\u00e9 para otro momento. Los cinco consejos anteriores deber\u00edan serle \u00fatiles a medida que se convierte en una parte clave de su equipo de planificaci\u00f3n corporativa. \u00a1Bienvenido al juego!<\/p>\n

             <\/p>\n

             <\/p>\n

            \"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

             <\/p>\n

            [\/et_pb_text][\/et_pb_column][\/et_pb_row][\/et_pb_section]<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

            Muchas empresas utilizan el t\u00e9rmino \u201cprevisi\u00f3n Smart\u201d o \u201cpron\u00f3stico Smart\u201d sin una justificaci\u00f3n firme. Distingamos entre la marca Smart y los que pretenden ofrecer predicciones Smart como reclamo. La previsi\u00f3n de la demanda es una parte fundamental de la planificaci\u00f3n de la demanda y del proceso S&OP. Aqu\u00ed hay 5 consejos que lo ayudar\u00e1n a ejecutar pron\u00f3sticos de una manera inteligente. <\/p>","protected":false},"author":122,"featured_media":9214,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_et_pb_use_builder":"on","_et_pb_old_content":"

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            Recently, I had an interesting conversation with an inventory manager and the VP Finance. We were discussing the benefits of being able to automatically optimize both reorder points and order quantities. The VP Finance was concerned that given their large supplier required minimum order quantities, they would not be able to benefit.\u00a0 He said his suppliers held all the power, forcing him to accept massive minimum order quantities and tying his hands. While he felt bad about this, he saw a silver lining: He didn\u2019t have to do any planning. He would accept a large inventory investment, but his customer service levels would the exceptional.\u00a0 Perhaps the large inventory investment was assumed to be the cost of doing business.<\/p>

            I pushed back and pointed out that he was not as powerless as he felt. He still had control of the other half of the procurement process: while he couldn\u2019t control how much to order, he could control when to order by adjusting the reorder point. In other words, there is always room for careful quantitative analysis in inventory management, even when you have one hand tied behind your back.<\/p>

            An Example<\/strong><\/p>

            To put some numbers behind my argument, I created a scenario then analyzed it using our methodology to show how consequential it can be to use inventory optimization software even in constrained situations. In this scenario, item demand averages 2.2 units per day but varies significantly by day of week. Let\u2019s say the imaginary supplier insists on a minimum order quantity of 500 units (way out of proportion to demand) and fills replenishment orders in either three days or ten days in equal proportions (quite inconsistent). To spread the blame around, let\u2019s also suppose that the imaginary supplier\u2019s imaginary customer uses a foolish rule that the reorder point should be 10% of the minimum order quantity. (Why this rule? Too many companies use simple\/simplistic rules of thumb in lieu of proper analysis.)<\/p>

            So, we have a base case in which the order quantity is 500 units, and the reorder point is 50 units. In this case, the fill rate is 100%, but the average number of units on hand is a whopping 330. If the customer would simply lower the reorder point from 50 to 15, the fill rate would still be 99.5%, but the average stock on hand would drop by 11% to 295 units. Using the one hand not tied behind his back, the inventory manager could cut his inventory investment by more than 10%, which would be a noticeable win.<\/p>

            Incidentally, if the minimum order quantity were abolished, the customer would be free to arrive at a new and much better solution. Setting the order quantity to 45 and the reorder point to 25 would achieve a 99% fill rate at the cost of a daily on-hand level of only 35 units: nearly a 90% reduction in inventory investment: a major improvement over the status quo.<\/p>

            Postscript<\/strong><\/p>

            These calculations are possible using our software, which can make visible the otherwise unknown relationships between inventory system design choices (e.g., order quantity and reorder point) and key performance indicators (e.g., average units on hand and fill rate).\u00a0 Armed with this ability to conduct these calculations, alternative arrangements with the supplier may now be considered. For example, what if, in exchange for paying a higher price per unit, the supplier agreed to a lower MOQ. Using the software to conduct an analysis of the key performance indicators using the \u201cwhat if\u201d costs and MOQs would reveal the cost per unit and MOQ that would be needed to develop a more profitable deal.\u00a0\u00a0 Once identified, all parties stand to benefit.\u00a0 The supplier now generates a better margin on sales of its products, and the buyer holds considerably less inventory yielding a holding cost reduction that dwarfs the added cost per unit.\u00a0 Everyone wins.<\/p>

            \u00a0<\/p>

            \u00a0<\/p>

            \"\"<\/a><\/p>

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