{"id":59,"date":"2013-02-12T08:51:10","date_gmt":"2013-02-12T12:51:10","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.smartforecaster.net\/?p=59"},"modified":"2023-10-04T10:46:23","modified_gmt":"2023-10-04T14:46:23","slug":"definir-un-buen-pronostico","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/smartcorp.com\/es\/blog\/defining-a-good-forecast\/","title":{"rendered":"\u00bfQu\u00e9 es \u201cUn buen pron\u00f3stico\u201d?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>[et_pb_section fb_built=&#8221;1&#8243; admin_label=&#8221;section&#8221; module_class=&#8221;blog_css&#8221; _builder_version=&#8221;3.22&#8243; transparent_background=&#8221;off&#8221; make_fullwidth=&#8221;off&#8221; use_custom_width=&#8221;off&#8221; width_unit=&#8221;on&#8221;][et_pb_row admin_label=&#8221;row&#8221; _builder_version=&#8221;3.25&#8243; background_size=&#8221;initial&#8221; background_position=&#8221;top_left&#8221; background_repeat=&#8221;repeat&#8221;][et_pb_column type=&#8221;4_4&#8243; 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80%;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->.et_pb_column .et_pb_blog_grid .column.size-1of2, .et_pb_column .et_pb_widget:nth-child(n) {<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> width: 100% !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> margin: 0 7.5% 7.5% 0 !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->.blog_col {<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> width: 56% !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> display: inline-block;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> float: left;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->.sitebar_col{<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> width: 230px !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> display: inline-block;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> float: right;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --><!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->@media (max-width: 930px){<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --><!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->.bloggg>div{<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> width: 85%;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->@media (max-width: 870px){<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --><!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->.bloggg>div{<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> width: 90%;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->@media (max-width: 830px){<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --><!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->.bloggg>div{<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> width: 97%;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->@media (max-width: 767px){<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->.sitebar_col {<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->display:none;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->.blog_col {<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> width: 100% !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> display: block;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> float: none;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->.blog_glob {<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> width: 100%;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> float: none;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> display: block;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->.blog_glob article {<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> width: 100%;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> padding: 45px 20px 10px 20px;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->.ghj {<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->width: 280px;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> margin: auto;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->padding-bottom:20px;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->.et_pb_post .entry-featured-image-url {<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> float: none !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> margin-right: 0 !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> display: block !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> position: relative !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> bottom: 0 !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> text-align: center !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->.post-content {<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> display: none !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --><!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->.blog_top_title {<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> line-height: 38px;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> font-size: 34px;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->.blog_glob article h2 a {<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> line-height: 28px;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->.blog_bg {<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> padding: 50px 15px;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --><\/style>\n<p>[\/et_pb_code][et_pb_code admin_label=&#8221;POST CSS&#8221;]<\/p>\n<style><!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --><!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->@media (max-width: 1320px){<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->.blog_glob .relposts article img {<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> width: 160px !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> height: 160px !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->.relposts article {<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> width: 180px !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->@media (max-width: 1160px){<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->.relposts article:nth-child(2) {<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> display:none !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->.blog_glob .relposts article .entry-title{<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> height: 85px !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->.relposts{<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> margin: auto;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> float: none;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> width: 390px;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --><!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->.relposts:after {<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> content: '';<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> display: block;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> clear: both;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->.blog_glob .relposts article h2 a{<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> font-size: 13.08px !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> color: #0d4c92;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --><!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> }<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->.relposts article {<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> margin-bottom: 25px !important ;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->.blog_glob .relposts article .entry-title{<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->margin-top:2px;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> line-height: 0.7em !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> height: 70px ;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->.relposts article{<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> width: 212px ;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> display: inline-block !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> float: left !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->.relposts article:nth-child(1) {<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> margin-right: 25px ;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->.relposts article:nth-child(2) {<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> margin-right: 25px;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->.blog_glob .relposts article{<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->display: inline-block;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> padding: 10px 10px 30px 10px !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> box-shadow: 0px 0px 5px silver !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->.blog_glob article{<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> padding: 10px 10px 30px 10px !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> box-shadow: 0px 0px 5px silver !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->.relposts .et_pb_post .entry-featured-image-url {<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> float: none !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> margin-right: 0 !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> display: block !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> position: relative !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> bottom: 0 !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->.post-content{<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->display:none;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->.relposts_title{<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> text-align: center;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> font-size: 26px;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> color: #0d4c92;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> font-weight: 600;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> margin-bottom: 15px;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> margin-top: 70px;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->.widget_categories_jj{<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> margin-top: 60px;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> margin-bottom: 60px;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->.widget_categories_jj ul li a {<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> text-decoration: none;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> font-size: 16px;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> line-height: 32px;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> color: #3c3c3c;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->.widget_categories_jj ul {<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> padding: 0 !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> margin-top: 0;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> list-style-type: none;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --><!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->.categ_title {<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> font-family: 'Open Sans', sans-serif !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> color: #0d4c92;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> font-size: 26px;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> padding-bottom: 30px;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> border-bottom: 1px solid #a3a3a3;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->.widget_categories_jj ul li{<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->text-decoration: none;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> font-size: 16px;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> line-height: 32px;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> color: #3c3c3c;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->.widget_categories_jj ul li {<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> list-style-type: none;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> border-bottom: 1px solid #a3a3a3;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> padding: 10px 0;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->.share_blog{<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->margin:5px !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->div.wp_rp_content {<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> display: none !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->.post-soc-icon img{<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> width: inherit !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> height: inherit !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> .post_soc {<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> position: absolute;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> margin-left: -55px;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->.bloggg{<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> position: relative;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> .post-soc-icon a img {<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> display: block;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> margin-bottom: 7px;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->.post-soc-icon a {<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> text-decoration: none;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->.post-main_text ul li:before {<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> content: '';<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> display: inline-block;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> width: 7px;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> height: 7px;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> background: #00964d;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> border-radius: 50%;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> margin-bottom: 2px;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> margin-right: 8px;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->.post-main_text ul li {<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> list-style-type: none;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> line-height: 30px;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->.post-main_text {<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->text-align: justify; <!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> color: #404040;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> font-size: 16px !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->.post-main_text a{<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->color: #0d4c92;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> font-style: italic;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->.post-main_text span{<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> font-style: italic;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->.post-main_text strong{<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> font-family: 'Open Sans', sans-serif !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> color: #0d4c92;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> font-weight: 400;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> font-size: 20px;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->.et_post_meta_wrapper img{<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> width: 400px !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> height: 280px !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> float: left;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> margin-right: 20px;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->.et_post_meta_wrapper .entry-title{<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> font-size: 26px;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> color: #0d4c92;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> font-weight: 600;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> margin-bottom: 8px;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> text-decoration: none;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> font-family: 'Open Sans', sans-serif !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->.single.et_pb_pagebuilder_layout.et_full_width_page .et_post_meta_wrapper {<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> width: 100% !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->.post-meta>a, .comments-number{<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->display:none !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->.single.et_pb_pagebuilder_layout.et_full_width_page .et_post_meta_wrapper {<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> padding-top: 0 !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->.blog_bg{<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->padding: 120px 15px;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->#left-area {<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> padding-bottom: 0 !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->.single .et_pb_post{<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> padding-bottom: 0 !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->.single .et_pb_post{<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> margin-bottom: 0 !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->@media (max-width: 767px){<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->.subscribe_bg{<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> margin-bottom: 60px;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->.ghj {<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> margin-bottom: -60px !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->.ghj{<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->margin-top:40px;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->.et_post_meta_wrapper img {<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> width: auto !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> height: auto !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> float: left;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> margin-right: 20px;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> max-width: 100% !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->#categories-bbb{<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> padding-top: 10px;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> margin-top: 0;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> margin-bottom: 10px;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> border-bottom: 2px solid #0d4c92;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> border-top: 2px solid #0d4c92;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> text-align: center;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->.categ_title{<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->font-weight: bold;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->color: #0d4c92;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> font-size: 26px;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> padding-bottom: 30px;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> border-bottom: none;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> padding-bottom: 10px;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->.categ_title:after {<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> content: 'f0dd ';<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> color: #0d4c92;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> font-family: fontawesome;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> margin-left: 5px;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->#categories-bbb ul{<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> display: none;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->#categories-bbb ul.baccc {<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> display: block !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->@media (max-width: 850px){<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->.et_post_meta_wrapper img {<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> width: auto !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> height: auto !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> float: none !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> text-align: center !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> margin: auto !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> max-width: 100% !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->.sitebar_col {<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> width: 190px !important;<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --><\/style>\n<p>[\/et_pb_code][et_pb_code]<script><!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->jQuery(document).ready(function($) {<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> \/\/ Stuff to do as soon as the DOM is ready. 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body_quote_text_shadow_blur_strength_tablet=&#8221;1px&#8221; body_quote_text_shadow_blur_strength_phone=&#8221;1px&#8221; button_text_shadow_horizontal_length_tablet=&#8221;0em&#8221; button_text_shadow_horizontal_length_phone=&#8221;0em&#8221; button_text_shadow_vertical_length_tablet=&#8221;0em&#8221; button_text_shadow_vertical_length_phone=&#8221;0em&#8221; button_text_shadow_blur_strength_tablet=&#8221;0em&#8221; button_text_shadow_blur_strength_phone=&#8221;0em&#8221; box_shadow_horizontal_image_tablet=&#8221;0px&#8221; box_shadow_horizontal_image_phone=&#8221;0px&#8221; box_shadow_vertical_image_tablet=&#8221;0px&#8221; box_shadow_vertical_image_phone=&#8221;0px&#8221; box_shadow_blur_image_tablet=&#8221;40px&#8221; box_shadow_blur_image_phone=&#8221;40px&#8221; box_shadow_spread_image_tablet=&#8221;0px&#8221; box_shadow_spread_image_phone=&#8221;0px&#8221; box_shadow_horizontal_button_tablet=&#8221;0px&#8221; box_shadow_horizontal_button_phone=&#8221;0px&#8221; box_shadow_vertical_button_tablet=&#8221;0px&#8221; box_shadow_vertical_button_phone=&#8221;0px&#8221; box_shadow_blur_button_tablet=&#8221;40px&#8221; box_shadow_blur_button_phone=&#8221;40px&#8221; box_shadow_spread_button_tablet=&#8221;0px&#8221; box_shadow_spread_button_phone=&#8221;0px&#8221; text_shadow_horizontal_length_tablet=&#8221;0em&#8221; text_shadow_horizontal_length_phone=&#8221;0em&#8221; text_shadow_vertical_length_tablet=&#8221;0em&#8221; text_shadow_vertical_length_phone=&#8221;0em&#8221; text_shadow_blur_strength_tablet=&#8221;0em&#8221; text_shadow_blur_strength_phone=&#8221;0em&#8221;]<\/p>\n<h1 style=\"text-align: center;\">Pursuing best practices in demand planning,<\/h1>\n<h1 style=\"text-align: center;\">forecasting and inventory optimization<\/h1>\n<p>[\/et_pb_slide][\/et_pb_fullwidth_slider][\/et_pb_section][et_pb_section fb_built=&#8221;1&#8243; specialty=&#8221;on&#8221; parallax_method_1=&#8221;off&#8221; parallax_method_2=&#8221;off&#8221; module_class_1=&#8221;blog_col&#8221; module_class_2=&#8221;sitebar_col&#8221; module_class=&#8221;bloggg&#8221; _builder_version=&#8221;3.22&#8243; transparent_background=&#8221;off&#8221; make_fullwidth=&#8221;off&#8221; use_custom_width=&#8221;off&#8221; width_unit=&#8221;on&#8221;][et_pb_column type=&#8221;2_3&#8243; specialty_columns=&#8221;2&#8243; _builder_version=&#8221;3.25&#8243; custom_padding=&#8221;|||&#8221; custom_padding__hover=&#8221;|||&#8221;][et_pb_row_inner admin_label=&#8221;Row&#8221; module_class=&#8221;blog_glob&#8221; _builder_version=&#8221;3.25&#8243;][et_pb_column_inner saved_specialty_column_type=&#8221;2_3&#8243; _builder_version=&#8221;3.25&#8243; custom_padding=&#8221;|||&#8221; custom_padding__hover=&#8221;|||&#8221;][et_pb_code module_class=&#8221;append_categ&#8221;]<script><!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->jQuery(document).ready(function($) {<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> \/\/ Stuff to do as soon as the DOM is ready. Use $() w\/o colliding with other libs<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --><!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->$(window).on('load', function(){<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> if ($(window).width() < 767 ) {<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> $(\".append_categ\").append($(\"#categories-bbb\"))<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> }<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}); <!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --><!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->});<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --><!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --><\/script>[\/et_pb_code][et_pb_text admin_label=&#8221;CONTENT&#8221; module_class=&#8221;post-main_text&#8221; _builder_version=&#8221;3.27.4&#8243; background_size=&#8221;initial&#8221; background_position=&#8221;top_left&#8221; background_repeat=&#8221;repeat&#8221; use_border_color=&#8221;off&#8221; border_color=&#8221;#ffffff&#8221; border_style=&#8221;solid&#8221;]<\/p>\n<p>\nTremendous cost-saving efficiencies can result from optimizing inventory stocking levels using the best predictions of future demand. Familiarity with forecasting basics is an important part of being effective with the software tools designed to exploit this efficiency. This concise introduction (the first in a short series of blog posts) offers the busy professional a primer in the basic ideas you need to bring to bear on forecasting. How do you evaluate your forecasting efforts, and how reliable are the results?<\/p>\n<p>A good forecast is \u201cunbiased.\u201d It correctly captures predictable structure in the demand history, including: trend (a regular increase or decrease in demand); seasonality (cyclical variation); special events (e.g. sales promotions) that could impact demand or have a cannibalization effect on other items; and other, macroeconomic events.<\/p>\n<p>By \u201cunbiased,\u201d we mean that the estimated forecast is not projecting too high or too low; the actual demand is equally likely to be above or below predicted demand. Think of the forecast as your best guess of what could happen in the future. If that forecast is \u201cunbiased,\u201d the overall picture will show that measures of actual future demand will \u201cbracket\u201d the forecasts\u2014distributed in balance above and below predictions by the equal odds.<\/p>\n<p>You can think of this as if you are an artillery officer and your job is to destroy a target with your cannon. You aim your cannon (\u201cthe forecast\u201d) and then shoot and watch the shells fall. If you aimed the cannon correctly (producing an \u201cunbiased\u201d forecast), those shells will \u201cbracket\u201d the target; some shells will fall in front and some shells fall behind, but some shells will hit the target. The falling shells can be thought of as the \u201cactual demand\u201d that will occur in the future. If you forecasted well (aimed your cannon well), then those actuals will bracket the forecasts, falling equally above and below the forecast.<\/p>\n<p>Once you have obtained an \u201cunbiased\u201d forecast (in other words, you aimed your cannon correctly), the question is: how accurate was your forecast? Using the artillery example, how wide is the range around the target in which your shells are falling? You want to have as narrow a range as possible. A good forecast will be one with the minimal possible \u201cspread\u201d around the target.<\/p>\n<p>However, just because the actuals are falling widely around the forecast does not mean you have a bad forecast. It may merely indicate that you have very \u201cvolatile\u201d demand history. Again, using the artillery example, if you are starting to shoot in a hurricane, you should expect the shells to fall around the target with a wide error.<\/p>\n<p>Your goal is to obtain as accurate a forecast as is possible with the data you have. If that data is very volatile (you\u2019re shooting in a hurricane), then you should expect a large error. If your data is stable, then you should expect a small error and your actuals will fall close to the forecast\u2014you\u2019re shooting on a clear day!<\/p>\n<p>So that you can understand both the usefulness of your forecasts and the degree of caution appropriate when applying them, you need to be able to review and measure how well your forecast is doing. How well is it estimating what actually occurs? SmartForecasts does this automatically by running its \u201csliding simulation\u201d through the history. It simulates \u201cforecasts\u201d that could have occurred in the past. An older part of the history, without the most recent numbers, is isolated and used to build forecasts. Because these forecasts then \u201cpredict\u201d what might happen in the more recent past\u2014a period for which you already have actual demand data\u2014the forecasts can be compared to the real recent history.<\/p>\n<p>In this manner, SmartForecasts can empirically compute the actual forecast error\u2014and those errors are needed to properly estimate safety stock. Safety stock is the amount of extra stock you need to carry in order to account for the anticipated error in your forecasts. In <a href=\"http:\/\/www.smartforecaster.net\/estimating-safety-stock\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">a subsequent essay<\/a>, I\u2019ll discuss how we use our estimated forecasts error (via the SmartForecasts sliding simulation) to correctly estimate safety stocks.<\/p>\n<p><em>Nelson Hartunian, PhD, co-founded Smart Software, formerly served as President, and currently oversees it as Chairman of the Board. He has, at various times, headed software development, sales and customer service.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/smartcorp.com\/smartforecasts\/\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-1523\" src=\"https:\/\/smartcorp.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/08\/demand_bottom.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"700\" height=\"250\" srcset=\"https:\/\/smartcorp.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/08\/demand_bottom.png 700w, https:\/\/smartcorp.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/08\/demand_bottom-480x171.png 480w\" sizes=\"(min-width: 0px) and (max-width: 480px) 480px, (min-width: 481px) 700px, 100vw\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>[\/et_pb_text][et_pb_code module_class=&#8221;comment_sect&#8221;]<script><!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->jQuery(document).ready(function($) {<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> \/\/ Stuff to do as soon as the DOM is ready. 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Use $() w\/o colliding with other libs<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --><!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->$(window).on('load', function(){<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> if ($(window).width() < 767 ) {<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> $(\".append_subs\").append($(\".ghj\"))<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> }<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}); <!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --><!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->});<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --><!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --><\/script>[\/et_pb_code][et_pb_code module_class=&#8221;append_share&#8221;]<script><!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->jQuery(document).ready(function($) {<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> \/\/ Stuff to do as soon as the DOM is ready. Use $() w\/o colliding with other libs<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --><!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->$(window).on('load', function(){<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> if ($(window).width() < 768 ) {<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> $(\".append_share\").append($(\".post_soc\"))<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> }<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->}); <!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --><!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] -->});<!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --><!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --><\/script>[\/et_pb_code][et_pb_text disabled_on=&#8221;on||&#8221; module_class=&#8221;relposts_title&#8221; _builder_version=&#8221;3.27.4&#8243; background_size=&#8221;initial&#8221; background_position=&#8221;top_left&#8221; background_repeat=&#8221;repeat&#8221; text_orientation=&#8221;center&#8221; module_alignment=&#8221;center&#8221; use_border_color=&#8221;off&#8221; border_color=&#8221;#ffffff&#8221; border_style=&#8221;solid&#8221;]<\/p>\n<p>\nRelated 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_builder_version=&#8221;3.19.11&#8243;][\/et_pb_fullwidth_code][\/et_pb_section]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Se pueden obtener enormes eficiencias de ahorro de costos al optimizar los niveles de existencias de inventario utilizando las mejores predicciones de la demanda futura. La familiaridad con los conceptos b\u00e1sicos de pron\u00f3stico es una parte importante para ser efectivo con las herramientas de software dise\u00f1adas para explotar esta eficiencia. Esta introducci\u00f3n concisa (la primera de una breve serie de publicaciones de blog) ofrece al profesional ocupado una introducci\u00f3n a las ideas b\u00e1sicas que debe aplicar en la elaboraci\u00f3n de pron\u00f3sticos. \u00bfC\u00f3mo eval\u00faa sus esfuerzos de pron\u00f3stico y qu\u00e9 tan confiables son los resultados?<\/p>","protected":false},"author":167,"featured_media":1516,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_et_pb_use_builder":"on","_et_pb_old_content":"[caption id=\"attachment_178\" align=\"alignright\" width=\"300\"]<a href=\"http:\/\/www.smartforecaster.net\/defining-a-good-forecast\/13-02-nelson-hartunian\/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-178\"><img class=\"size-medium wp-image-178\" src=\"http:\/\/www.smartforecaster.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/02\/13-02-nelson-hartunian-300x224.jpg\" alt=\"Nelson Hartunian before a whiteboard\" width=\"300\" height=\"224\" \/><\/a> Smart Software President Nelson Hartunian, PhD[\/caption]\r\n\r\nTremendous cost-saving efficiencies can result from optimizing inventory stocking levels using the best predictions of future demand. Familiarity with forecasting basics is an important part of being effective with the software tools designed to exploit this efficiency. This concise introduction (the first in a short series of blog posts) offers the busy professional a primer in the basic ideas you need to bring to bear on forecasting. How do you evaluate your forecasting efforts, and how reliable are the results?\r\n\r\n<!--more-->\r\n\r\nA good forecast is \u201cunbiased.\u201d It correctly captures predictable structure in the demand history, including: trend (a regular increase or decrease in demand); seasonality (cyclical variation); special events (e.g. sales promotions) that could impact demand or have a cannibalization effect on other items; and other, macroeconomic events.\r\n\r\nBy \u201cunbiased,\u201d we mean that the estimated forecast is not projecting too high or too low; the actual demand is equally likely to be above or below predicted demand. Think of the forecast as your best guess of what could happen in the future. If that forecast is \u201cunbiased,\u201d the overall picture will show that measures of actual future demand will \u201cbracket\u201d the forecasts\u2014distributed in balance above and below predictions by the equal odds.\r\n\r\nYou can think of this as if you are an artillery officer and your job is to destroy a target with your cannon. You aim your cannon (\u201cthe forecast\u201d) and then shoot and watch the shells fall. If you aimed the cannon correctly (producing an \u201cunbiased\u201d forecast), those shells will \u201cbracket\u201d the target; some shells will fall in front and some shells fall behind, but some shells will hit the target. The falling shells can be thought of as the \u201cactual demand\u201d that will occur in the future. If you forecasted well (aimed your cannon well), then those actuals will bracket the forecasts, falling equally above and below the forecast.\r\n\r\nOnce you have obtained an \u201cunbiased\u201d forecast (in other words, you aimed your cannon correctly), the question is: how accurate was your forecast? Using the artillery example, how wide is the range around the target in which your shells are falling? You want to have as narrow a range as possible. A good forecast will be one with the minimal possible \u201cspread\u201d around the target.\r\n\r\nHowever, just because the actuals are falling widely around the forecast does not mean you have a bad forecast. It may merely indicate that you have very \u201cvolatile\u201d demand history. Again, using the artillery example, if you are starting to shoot in a hurricane, you should expect the shells to fall around the target with a wide error.\r\n\r\nYour goal is to obtain as accurate a forecast as is possible with the data you have. If that data is very volatile (you\u2019re shooting in a hurricane), then you should expect a large error. If your data is stable, then you should expect a small error and your actuals will fall close to the forecast\u2014you\u2019re shooting on a clear day!\r\n\r\nSo that you can understand both the usefulness of your forecasts and the degree of caution appropriate when applying them, you need to be able to review and measure how well your forecast is doing. How well is it estimating what actually occurs? <i>SmartForecasts<\/i> does this automatically by running its \u201csliding simulation\u201d through the history. It simulates \u201cforecasts\u201d that could have occurred in the past. An older part of the history, without the most recent numbers, is isolated and used to build forecasts. Because these forecasts then \u201cpredict\u201d what might happen in the more recent past\u2014a period for which you already have actual demand data\u2014the forecasts can be compared to the real recent history.\r\n\r\nIn this manner, <i>SmartForecasts<\/i> can empirically compute the actual forecast error\u2014and those errors are needed to properly estimate safety stock. Safety stock is the amount of extra stock you need to carry in order to account for the anticipated error in your forecasts. In <a title=\"Estimating Safety Stock\" href=\"http:\/\/www.smartforecaster.net\/estimating-safety-stock\/\">a subsequent essay<\/a>, I\u2019ll discuss how we use our estimated forecasts error (via the <i>SmartForecasts<\/i> sliding simulation) to correctly estimate safety stocks.\r\n\r\n<em>Nelson Hartunian, PhD, co-founded Smart Software, formerly served as President, and currently oversees it as Chairman of the Board. He has, at various times, headed software development, sales and customer service.<\/em>","_et_gb_content_width":"","content-type":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[205,30],"tags":[27,28,29,31,32,33,34,35,36],"class_list":["post-59","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-blog","category-forecasting","tag-demand","tag-demand-planning","tag-efficiency","tag-forecasting-2","tag-inventory-optimization","tag-safety-stock","tag-seasonality","tag-stocking","tag-trend"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v25.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Defining What &quot;A Good Forecast&quot; Really Is - Smart SOFTWARE<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"How do you evaluate your forecasting efforts, and how reliable are the results? 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